Melbourne v Essendon betting tips, prediction and odds analysis; AFL Rd 3 preview 2022

Welcome to our Melbourne v Essendon betting tips, prediction and odds analysis ahead of their AFL round 3 clash at the MCG on Friday night. 

The Demons have won their opening two contests, which is in contrast to the fancied Bombers, who have dropped their opening two clashes by a combined 78 points.  

The reigning premier’s victories over the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast have shown they will again be a force to be reckoned with in 2022. 

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However, the Bombers have been severely disappointing in their losses to Geelong and the Brisbane Lions, despite being expected to push for a top four position this year. 

As you would expect, the Demons have been installed a $1.20 favourite for this clash, with the Bombers rank outsiders at $4.40. The $1.90 line has been set at 27.5. 

The Demons are expected to resist the temptation to play injured defenders Jake Lever (foot) and Michael HIbberd (calf), despite the premiership pair closing in on returns. Christian Salem will also be missing from the Demons’ line-up. 

Essendon has suffered a huge blow to their finals aspirations with gun midfielder Zach Merrett set to miss up to two months with a knee injury. He will join Zach Reid and Nik Cox on the sidelines, while hard-running GWS recruit Dylan Shiel faces a last-minute fitness test. 

Continue reading for our free Melbourne v Essendon tips, winner prediction and odds update ahead of their Friday night clash at the MCG. 

Demons v Bombers tips

Our AFL betting expert has examined the markets and found some value Melbourne v Essendon tips: 

Clayton Oliver most possessions in group 1 

Oliver is likely to slide down to the third rung of betting for this market, which is great value for a player of his quality. While his star teammate Christian Petracca has dominated the opening two rounds and again deserves favouritism in this market, we think it might be Oliver’s turn here. We just can’t see the Bombers letting Petracca off the chain like they did with Lachie Neale last round, and we fully expect he will have a close check all day. Oliver is offering $5 (with Neds) to top the possessions in the much vaunted group 1 betting at Neds. 

Ben Brown to kick 3+ goals

The Bombers have struggled to stop gun forwards this year and we envisage that Brown can have a big game here. He is priced at around the $2.50 mark to kick 3+ goals. 

Darcy Parish to have 30+ touches

Star Bomber Darcy Parish is going to have plenty of work to do without Zach Merrett on the field and his input, along with that of Andy McGrath, is going to be telling. Expect Parish to get plenty of the ball and most likely go head-to-head with Oliver. This is as important a matchup as any. 

Melbourne v Essendon prediction 1/4/2022

Melbourne is heavily favoured to win this game and it would take a remarkable turnaround for the Bombers to challenge them. The Demons’ greater spread of talent through the midfield is telling and exacerbated by the Merrett and Shiel injuries. While we will be steering clear of betting on an outright result in this game, there are plenty of opportunities in the exotics, particularly in possessions betting. Our final Melbourne v Essendon prediction? Demons by 23 points.

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