Gold Coast v Port Adelaide tips, prediction & odds update, AFL Rd 1, 2020

Gold Coast will again be among the cellar-dwellers this AFL season, but we’re tipping their clash against Port Adelaide will be much closer than anticipated on Saturday night at Metricon Stadium.

The Suns are $3.12 outsiders with BetEasy.com.au, while Port Adelaide has been backed into $1.35, after being as long as $1.50 earlier this week.

We think the Suns-Power odds are a little bit too heavily skewed, give the shorter quarters and the home team having injected former Crows midfield bull Hugh Greenwood and Richmond premiership player Brandon Ellis into the line-up. This is before mentioning “once in a generation talent” and no.1 draft pick Matthew Rowell and his close mate Noah Anderson to the team.

The Power on the other hand will again rely on their handful of stars — Robbie Gray, Travis Boak, Hamish Hartlett — and their talented youth which include the likes of Connor Rozee, Xavier Duursma and Zak Butters. The Power have also included their no.1 draft pick, Mitch Georgiades, taken at pick 18 for his debut.

Below we highlight our Gold Coast v Port Adelaide tips, winner prediction and best bets ahead of the AFL Round 1 clash from Metricon Stadium, on the Gold Coast, on Saturday afternoon.

Suns v Power odds

Head to head odds: Suns ($3.12) v Power ($1.35)
Line betting: Suns +19.5 ($1.90) v Power -19.5 ($1.90)
1st goalscorer odds: Ben King $10, Robbie Gray $9, Sam Day $10, Connor Rozee $11, Todd Marshall $12, Brad Ebert $14

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide best bet tips

We have reached a few conclusions over the first few matches of the coronavirus impacted AFL season, which has seen games shortened and no crowds in attendance. These are that 25 possessions is probably equivalent to 30 and major momentum swings are harder to generate without screaming fans egging players on. Here are our best bet tips for Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide:

Matthew Rowell to get 20 possessions

We’re tipping first-gamer Matthew Rowell to show why he was the no.1 draft pick. This kid can seriously play and we think he’s an absolute lock to get 20 possessions on debut. Expect him to slot straight into a frontline midfield role but don’t expect to get the $2.80 on offer at Unibet for him to get 20 possessions in his second game.

Robbie Gray to kick three goals

Port Adelaide star Robbie Gray will be forced to play forward with Charlie Dixon unavailable through injury. Gray spent more time through the midfield for the Power last year, but looking at the Power line-up, they will need him up forward and we all know what he’s capable of when he is there. Sportsbet has him at $4.40 to kick more than three goals which we think is generous and we confidently tip him to follow through here.

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide prediction 21/3/2020

Gold Coast looms as a potential banana skin game for Port Adelaide, who are hot favourite with all betting sites. We just think the Suns are going to improve markedly this year, with some smart recruiting and natural development. Having said this, the names in the Power engine room — Boak, Gray, Rockliff, Lycett — have a hard edge you don’t see with the Suns. We think the $1.35 odds are far too short and would ultimately advise not going near head to head betting in this game, but if you must back the Power do it with a 1-39 margin. Our final Gold Coast v Port Adelaide prediction? The Power by 21.

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