Port Adelaide v Geelong betting tips, prediction & odds udpate; AFL Qualifying Final Preview
Welcome to our Port Adelaide v Geelong betting tips, prediction & odds update ahead of their AFL qualifying final being played at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night.
The bookies have minor premiers the Power as their elect, pricing the Ken Hinkley-coached club at $1.71 to win, with the Cats outsiders in the betting at $2.15.
This clash will open the 2020 finals series and both teams have a double chance, meaning the winners will qualify straight through to the preliminary final, while the losers will take on the winners of the first semi-final between West Coast and Collingwood.
Geelong thrashed Port Adelaide by 60 points earlier in this Covid-19-impacted season, with this performance probably the low point of the year for the all-conquering Power. On this day, star Cat and Coleman Medallist Tom Hawkins booted six goals and All Australians Cam Guthrie and Patrick Dangerfield were dominant.
The Cats’ finals record in recent times was looking rather bleak until last year’s defeat of West Coast in the first semi-final, but it’s easy to forget how poor the Eagles were. Prior to that the Cats were knocked out in the elimination final in 2018, and had won just three of 12 finals.
The Power last played in the finals in 2017 when they lost to West Coast by two points in an elimination final. They reached the preliminary final in 2014, when they finished outside the top four, but fell just three points short of eventual premiers Hawthorn.
Port Adelaide have made three unforced changes for the clash, with Ryan Burton, Tom Clurey and Zac Butters all being recalled. Injury-plagued Burton is a calculated punt from the Power, with the defender having played just six games this season. Key defender Clurey has overcome injury and youngster Zak Butters has served his two-match suspension. The Power dumped Boyd Woodcock, Jarrod Lienert and Riley Bonner.
The Cats have made two changes with midfielder Jack Steven and emerging big man Esava Ratugolea surprisingly being dropped. Ruckman Rhys Stanley and youngster Tom Atkins have both been recalled for the final, which will mark Jed Bews’s 100th appearance for the Cats.
Read on for our free Port Adelaide v Geelong tips ahead of their qualifying final at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night.
Power v Cats odds
|Start:||7.40pm AEST, October 1|
|Venue:||Adelaide Oval, Adelaide|
|Head-to-head odds:||Port Adelaide ($1.72) v Geelong ($2.11)|
|Line betting:||Port Adelaide -4.5 ($1.90) v Geelong +4.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Port Adelaide $6; Geelong $6|
Port Adelaide v Geelong tips
Our AFL betting expert has scoured the odds and found several value Power v Cats tips for Thursday’s game.
Tom Rockliff to gather over 25 touches
The Power are often a team that spreads the load, with many matches featuring games where no players gather over 25 touches. We suspect Geelong will pay close attention to Power veteran Travis Boak, which could let his partner in crime Rockliff gather plenty of the ball. The former Lions captain does not use the ball as well as Boak or Wines, and could be given more rope as the Cats attempt to generate turnovers.
Tom Hawkins to kick 4+ goals
Port Adelaide have struggled to contain big key forwards in 2020 with even Giant Magpie Mason Cox threatening them aerially last game. Cats ace Hawkins has proven himself the best power forward in the AFL in 2020, and he is a big game performer. Who can forget the demolition job he completed on Magpie Ben Reid in the 2011 grand final. Hawkins is paying $7 to kick 4+ goals against the Power.
Geelong by 1-39 points
This option is paying $2.38 with leading AFL bookie Unibet, which adds a little bit of value on your Geelong to win bets. We can seem them winning, but not by any more than five goals.
Over/Under betting market
The over/under betting mark for the Power v Cats clash has been set at 115.5, which looks generous enough for us to include in our same game multis. We’ll be taking the unders at $1.88 with Unibet.
Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats prediction 1/10/2020
Port Adelaide have barely put a foot wrong in 2020 and thoroughly deserve their favouritism in the betting, but it is still hard to separate these teams. We expect a bruising, low-scoring game, with goals at a premium, which has been a strong trend when good teams play each other. With Geelong the outsiders with AFL betting sites, we simply must take them because we mark this game much closer to a 50-50 prospect. Besides, they appear to have more firepower through the midfield and the best big forward in the comp. Our final Port Adelaide v Geelong prediction? Cats by 16 points.
Power vs Cats lowdown
Free to air: Channel 7; Subscription TV: Foxtel; streaming/IPTV: Kayo; mobile: AFL Live Pass.
All of the top online betting sites will offer markets on the AFL.
The game starts at 7:40pm local time on October 1, 2020.
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