Baseball betting strategy
Baseball really is a grifter’s sport and without good betting strategy it can chew through your bankroll so quickly. With correct baseball betting strategy and some handy tips, though, it can be a long-term profitable sport for punters.
Also read: Baseball betting
In essence baseball is a numbers game. The more you know your stats, the more opportunity you will have to turn a profit when betting on baseball. Four key baseball betting tips you can arm yourself with before taking on the betting sites are:
Baseball tip 1: Don’t chase those streaks
If you do anything in regards to streaks, it should be to ride them. Don’t bet against streaks. While all streaks come to an end, there’s no law saying they need to stop any time soon. Don’t think for a moment that any team in baseball can’t go on a 15-game losing streak or a 20-game winning streak. It happens pretty much every year. Each year countless sports bettors lose their shirts because they were betting against streaks and increasing their bets in the hope that the streak will end. If you want to go broke, play against streaks.
Baseball tip 2: Pay attention to starting pitchers
In baseball, the pitcher is a dominant force. The pitcher can swing games either way and you must know about who is pitching before making any wager. Don’t be a name bettor. A name bettor is the sports bettor who hears the name of a good pitcher and bets on that team. All pitchers have good days and bad days. Some pitchers dominate teams and some get dominated. For example, no matter how good of a year the Seattle Mariners were having back in the noughties, they could not beat Pedro Martinez (formerly of Boston, New York Mets etc). On paper, the Mariners could have their rivals beat in every single area, but if Pedro was on the mound, you knew to bet the Red Sox no matter what.
You need to do your research on each pitcher and see how they perform for the situation they are in. You will find pitchers with decent ERAs who pitch well at home, but on the road they might have a 6 ERA! You may find a pitcher who pitches pretty well, but his team wins only 35% of the games in which he starts. Conversely, you might find a pitcher who is just average, but his team wins 70% of the games he starts. All these pieces of information help you decide which team has the best shot to win.
Baseball tip 3: Ignore the lines
If you are not picking your own teams (IE, using a handicapping service), ignore this tip. However, if you are picking your own teams, don’t look at the lines until after you have come up with some winners. The lines mean nothing as far as who’s better. It’s simply a financial transaction and it tells you what kind of value you will be receiving on your money.
Picture two scenarios. In the first one, you head over to your favourite online betting site and see that the Yankees are favoured by -280 over the Devil Rays. You laugh because there’s no way you are betting at that price on anyone (good idea). You forget the game and move on.
Now, let’s look at scenario two. Instead of looking at the lines, you look at who’s playing and begin to piece together information. Your mind guides you to the Yankees game and you discover that this game is almost a toss-up. You see how Tampa Bay has held their own against the Yankees and so forth. You proceed to the sports book and see that you can get an amazing value for your Tampa Bay bet and you bet it, later winning a nice bit of change.
Do you see the difference? Sure, maybe in both cases you don’t look at the game, but by leaving the lines for later, you gave yourself, psychologically, a chance for the play.
Baseball betting tip 4: Understand money lines
When betting on baseball, you only need to pick the winner. How hard is that? There are no spreads involved — unless you want to increase your position by utilising the run line. It may be because the money line of baseball betting throws off the average sports bettor. It’s just natural to some to bet with spreads. There’s very little thinking involved — as far as the financials go. Baseball forces the sports bettor to think a little more about the money. In football or basketball, you take or lay points and pay a simple 10% vig — nice and easy.
I want to share with you a few rules for understanding money lines betting on baseball that will help reduce the amount of time you spend thinking about the financials and increase the time spent on picking the winner. These rules are simple to follow — even the new sports bettor will be able to follow them. Put them down on paper and keep them handy when you go to bet.
Rule One: Don’t bet on a team that’s more than or equal to -165 on the money line. This rule is very simple to follow. If you see a team that is -165 or greater, you don’t bet them on the money line. If you love the team, look at rule number two. The concept behind this rule is simple. The higher you go in lines, the harder it will be to get ahead should you lose. Let’s take that -280 line I talked about earlier. If you lose once, you will now need to win almost three times just to get back to even. By keeping the maximum money line around -165 or less, you are only risking about 1/2 of a win.
Rule Two: If a team is -165 to -230 and you must bet them, take the team on the run line. By taking a heavily favored team on the run line, you will cut down the money you have to lay. In some cases, it will turn into money in your pocket. For example, a favored team on the run line may end up being +120 (for example). Heavily favored teams tend to win by 2 runs or more often. The run line allows you to get a great team at a great price.
Rule Three: Walk away from all games -240 or above. It’s good practice to simply ignore the high-priced games. There’s really no money in it. Let’s take a -250 favorite as an example. The best teams in baseball win 60% of their games — so they lose 40% of the time. If you bet the -250 favorite 10 times and those good odds played out, you would end up losing. Let’s say you bet $25 per game — to win $10. At the end of your 10-game run, you would have lost $40. The hole is just too big to crawl out of. What if the team(s) played .550 ball? You would lose even more.
Rule Four: Never bet on a road team that’s trying to complete the sweep. Yes, road teams do sweep home teams, but it’s a rare event. A quick look over sweep attempts in 2005, for example, would show you that the sweep is only completed about 10-15% of the time. Why risk 100% of your money for a 10-15% chance to win and further compound it by laying extra money on a possible favorite?
The World Gambling List hope these baseball betting tips have helped you think a little more clearly and hopefully lead you to implementing better strategy and helping win more money when when wagering on this sport.