Carlton v Richmond betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Carlton v Richmond betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL Round 1 clash at the MCG on Thursday night.
The Blues are heavy favourites to record their first win of 2026, priced at 1.38 to defeat Richmond (3.05), despite being thrashed by Sydney in Opening Round. The Blues v Tigers line has been set at 18.5 points in the Blues favour.
Carlton would be bitterly disappointed with their capitulation against the Swans, in what is looming as a make or break year for coach Michael Voss, after they had 12 goals piled on against them in the third term, eventually losing by 63 points.
Richmond will kick their season off against the Blues after sitting out Opening Round, but with few expectations on them this season, they will fancy their chances of causing an upset here.
The Tigers have some injury troubles with boom junior Josh Smillie (quad), Dion Prestia (hamstring), Taj Hotton (hip), Samson Ryan (foot) and Mykelti Lefau (suspension) all injured. Nick Vlastuin is also in doubt for the clash after an injury interrupted pre-season.
But Jonty Faull (concussion) and star swingman Noah Balta (hamstring) are available to play against the Blues.
The Blues will lose experienced defender Adam Saad (hamstring), with Lachie Cowan (calf) and Blake Acres (shoulder) seemingly in the box seat to replace him after making it through a VFL game unscathed.
The Carlton vs Richmond clash is due to kick off at 7.30pm AEST at the MCG on Thursday night.
Carlton v Richmond betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Carlton v Richmond betting tips:
Jagga Smith 25+ possessions
We backed Smith at nice odds to reach 25+ possessions and he was magnificent on debut against Sydney, and we think he will only get better from here. We see no reason not to ride the Smith train while it’s in motion even though he has been upgraded in the eyes of the bookies this week. He is only paying 1.40 to reach the mark, which is short, but we think he’ll become a staple in multis for many years to come.
Ashton Moir 2+ goals
Moir looks to have plenty of natural ability and has a knack of kicking goals, even though he can go missing for big parts of games. Moir has a key role to play in 2026 with no Curnow, and we will happily take him for 2+ goals here at 1.78 with Aussie betting sites. A big bag to Harry McKay against one of these weaker teams would also not surprise.
Tim Taranto 25+ possessions
With no Prestia in the Tigers ranks midfield pair Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are likely to be the mainstays in the centre square. While Hopper has averaged more touches in recent outings, we think Taranto has had a great pre-season and will win plenty of the ball. You could do worse than taking Taranto for 20+ possessions with two goals as a sweetener.
Carlton v Richmond prediction
Every loss is going to heap more pressure on Voss and the Blues must win for him this week, or the jungle dreams will become deafening. The good news is they are playing a team of kids, that have few prospects this season, which won’t upset most of the AFL. Carlton look a lot more sorted in the midfield, with plenty of star power, while their backline, with the addition of young gun Harry Dean should be better than it is. We just think the Blues (gulp) have more class than their opponent and should win this one easily. Our final Carlton v Richmond prediction? Blues by 26 points.
