Essendon v Hawthorn betting tips and predictions
Welcome to our Essendon v Hawthorn betting tips and prediction for their AFL Round 1 clash at the MCG on Friday night.
The Hawks have been installed a 1.22 favourite by betting sites to defeat the Bombers (4.25) in what looms as an early season litmus test after they were soundly beaten by GWS in their season opener. The Bombers v Hawks line has been set at 29.5 points.
The failed trade of former Bombers skipper Zach Merrett to the Hawks also adds an edge to the clash, after the Essendon hierarchy refused to trade their six time best and fairest winner.
The Hawks have a relatively clean bill of health after the Giants loss, with Cam Mackenzie a chance to return from concussion, while Flynn Perez and Noah Mraz seemingly next up after travelling with the team to Sydney. The Hawks have also been in the headlines for their handling of Dylan Moore and Connor Macdonald’s arrest in the USA over the off-season – a distraction they did not need.
The Bombers are likely to unveil several recruits in this clash, with Dyson Sharp, Max Kondogiannis and Hussien El Achkar all impressing over the pre-season. They will be without ruckman Nick Bryan (knee) and Nic Martin (knee) for long stints, while young gun Isaac Kako needs another week after a minor hamstring injury.
Essendon v Hawthorn betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Essendon v Hawthorn tips:
Jai Newcombe 25+ possessions
The Hawks midfield was soundly beaten by the GWS last weekend — how they would have killed for Zach Merrett to compliment Newcombe. With the departure of James Worpel (Geelong), Newcombe’s role becomes even more important, with his team lacking class through the midfield, especially with Will Day on the sidelines. If Newcombe doesn’t have a good game, the Hawks could get rolled in this clash. He is paying 1.68 to gather 25+ possessions.
Zach Merrett 25+ possessions
The star Bomber might have liked to be playing for the other team on Friday night, but he’s the ultimate professional and will undoubtedly put his best foot forward. There would also be a burning desire to torch the Hawks, who ultimately could not get the trade done. Merrett is paying 1.32 to reach 25 possessions. HIs midfield mate Darcy Parrish also looks to be fit again, and we’ll be including him for 25+ possessions in our multis.
Mabior Chol 2+ goals
Chol has developed into a serviceable forward under Sam Mitchell, with consistency, something that evaded him early in his career, a highlight of his game. He is also offering some nice value at 1.90 to kick 2+ goals. While we’re on goals, Nick Watson was a human highlights reel last weekend and is worth including in your multis for a goal or two. Nate Caddy has enjoyed a flawless pre-season, if you are looking for a Bomber to kick goals.
Essendon v Hawthorn prediction
The Hawks are entering this season with great expectations, but they were far from a finished product against GWS. While they should win this game against the Bombers, who have a handful of players on debut, we are not filled with the same bullishness on the Hawks as other analysts. We think the Bombers will surprise here and push them all the way, but just fall short. We like Essendon +29.5 in line betting, with this option paying about 1.90 with Neds Australia. Our final Bombers v Hawks prediction? Hawks by 11 points.
