Hawthorn v Geelong betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Hawthorn v Geelong betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 4 clash at the MCG on Easter Monday.
The Hawks are 1.62 favourites with Australian betting sites to defeat the Cats (2.30) but this traditional fixture is known to throw up surprises.
The Hawks-Cats line has been set at 8.5 points, while the over-under mark is at 185.5 and will attract some attention from punters.
The Hawks have won two of their three matches with these victories coming against Essendon and Sydney, while they were beaten by GWS in Opening Round.
Important runner Karl Amon has been a confirmed out for the Hawks, while Cam Mackenzie (knee) has also been excluded. They have included first-gamer Flynn Perez, who played 24 games at North Melbourne, with the defender starring in last-year’s finals series in the SANFL; and 2025 draftee Jack Dalton.
The Cats have defeated Adelaide and Fremantle, two teams in the premiership window, but did play both of them at GMHBA Stadium, which can be tough for interstate teams.
The Cats will again be without Patrick Dangerfield with the veteran battling soft tissue injuries, while they continue to overlook Hawks recruit James Worpel.
The Cats have made two changes, opting to rest Irishman Mark O’Connor, and dropping youngster Jhye Clark, with experienced pair Jack Bowes and Brad Close recalled.
Hawthorn v Geelong betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Hawthorn v Geelong betting tips:
Jack Ginnivan 2+ goals
The Hawks firestarter loves the big stage, and there are fewer big stages than the MCG on Easter Monday. Ginni has been serviceable in 2026, but has not hit the scoreboard heavily. We’ll back him in to kick 2+ at a nice price of 3.20.
Bailey Smith 30+ possessions
The Hawks are unlikely to tag the prolific Smith, instead backing in their syste, which means he is likely to win a mountain of possessions – again. We feel stupid constantly tipping him, but he has just kept paying over the last year or so. Smith for 30+ is paying 1.70 with BetRight Australia.
Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals
The Hawks backline has become a real strength, with the aerial ability of Josh Battle and Tom Barrass, and if the Cats are to win they will need Cameron or Shannon Neale to get on top down there. We think it might be Cameron this time, with the veteran paying 2.10 to kick 3+ goals.
Hawthorn v Geelong prediction
We’re not sure Hawthorn should be favourites for this clash, let alone short-priced favourites. This has us leaning towards taking the Cats to win, because they keep finding a way to do it. Plus, we absolutely love seeing the look of thunder on Sam Mitchell’s face when the Hawks lose. On a more serious note, the Cats midfield is simply better than the Hawks, with the winner coming down to who can connect with their forwards more often. Our final Hawthorn v Geelong prediction? Cats by 1 point.
