Lorenzo Musetti v Novak Djokovic betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Lorenzo Musetti v Novak Djokovic betting tips and winner prediction for their Australian Open quarter-final clash on Wednesday.
Musetti (3.29) is an outsider to defeat the 10-time Australian Open champion, who is yet to drop a set at Melbourne Park, and received a walkover in the fourth round, after Jakub Menšík suffered an abdominal injury.
For Djokovic, just shy of his 39th birthday, this could be a blessing with Melbourne’s soaring temperatures making life tough for players
Tennis betting sites have Djokovic priced at 1.34 to defeat Musetti, and at 9.50 to emerge victorious at the tournament, with his 9-1 career record undoubtedly factoring into these projections.
Djokovic’s dominance is clear across both hard and clay courts, with his ability to grind down points and mentally reset after losing a set giving him an edge in most of their meetings.
The only time Musetti beat Djokovic came in the 2023 Monte‑Carlo Masters (round of 16), where the Italian showcased his variety and shot‑making by winning in three sets on clay before the Serb eventually took control of the rivalry again.
Their most recent was in the 2025 Hellenic Championship final, a close battle that Djokovic won 4‑6, 6‑3, 7‑5, highlighting that Musetti can push him deep. Statistical splits also show Djokovic winning far more sets (22 to Musetti’s 7) in their 29 total sets played, reinforcing the Serb’s overall superiority.
But Musetti is playing some career-best tennis at the moment and has age on his side, at just 23, with the last year showing Djokovic can struggle with his body deep in grand slams, played over best of five sets.
Musetti v Djokovic odds
- Lorenzo Musetti3.29
- Novak Djokovic1.34
- Lorenzo Musetti2.50
- Novak Djokovic1.48
Musetti v Djokovic betting tips
Our tennis betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Musetti v Djokovic betting tips:
Over 37.5 total games
Djokovic won their last encounter in a total of 31 games in a best of three match, meaning over five sets, this match should surpass 38.5 total games. This option is paying around the 1.85 mark. Interestingly some US betting sites have set the total games over/under market at 38.5.
Djokovic more than nine aces
Djokovic has served wonderfully so far in Australia and we’ll back him in to serve more than nine aces, with this option paying 1.57, and seemingly offering great value for punters.
Musetti v Djokovic winner prediction
While we like the idea of a young Italian challenging another young Italian (Sinner) for the Australian Open title, we’re not sure Djokovic is ready to move on, and we just can’t see him dropping this clash. Djokovic over their 10 clashes has proven to be far more consistent than Musetti, has a better serve and seemingly will handle the hot Aussie conditions better than his rival. It also helps Djokovic’s aging legs got a chance to freshen up with his last start opponent withdrawing. Our final Musetti v Djokovic prediction? Djokovic 3-1.
