State of Origin Game 2: NSW v Queensland
State of Origin Game II is about to explode into Melbourne on Wednesday night, and the dramas of game one will be a tough act to follow.
Of course, NSW staged one of the great comebacks from 20-0 down to win 22-20 in the dying seconds, thanks in large part to the red card for Maroons fullback Kalyn Ponga in the 58th minute and also helped by a Nathan Cleary masterclass at halfback.
The Blues scored three tries from that point, including the miracle regather by veteran fullback James Tedesco in the 79th minute to level the scores. Cleary tapped over the winner from adjacent to the posts.
It was an epic contest but what has been largely forgotten in the wash-up is just how poor the Blues were in the opening 25 minutes; they trailed 20-0 and looked like a bunch of players who had rolled up on game day and were playing together for the first time. As opposed to Queensland, who opened with relentless focus, zero errors and well-drilled attacking plays.
The bookies believe Laurie Daley’s Blues will have learnt a lesson from that and Australian betting sites have made them $1.82 favourites to win at the MCG and seal the seal the series. But the likelihood is they would have lost game one without the Ponga send-off and they will have to put out a much better display to hold out the Maroons.
Also, heading into game one the sportsbooks made the Blues much shorter favourites than $1.82 at home, so the money men have not been hoodwinked into believe this will be a cruisy victory for the Blues.
Enforced team changes won’t help the cohesion issues for the Blues, though the return of front-row machine Payne Haas will really give them a lift.
Queensland now lead the overall match tally 70-61, with two draws, and they hold a 27-17 series edge (two series were drawn but went to Queensland as the holders of the title from the previous series).
NSW v Queensland team news
NSW: Casey McLean, who made such an impact off the bench in his first Origin, has been ruled out with a quad injury. Sharks hooker Blayke Brailey (arm) is also ruled out after making his debut in game one. McLean was expected to start in the centres in game two, so the Blues have shifted Manly’s Tolu Koula from wing to centre, with Roosters excitement machine Mark Nawaqanitawase named on the wing for his Origin debut and Dolphins winger Jack Bostock being added to the bench. Newcastle second-rower Dylan Lucas has been named for his debut in place of hard-hitting Haumole Olakau’atu. Arguably the biggest change in the return of super-prop Payne Haas, who missed the first Origin with a knee injury. Five-eighth Mitch Moses (hamstring) is also back, forcing Ethan Strange to the bench. Strange can consider himself unlucky as he was superb on debut for the Blues. Wests Tigers hooker Api Koroisau has been added to the bench.
Queensland: The biggest call Maroons coach Billy Slater made for game one was leaving flying fullback Reece Walsh out altogether after his return from injury, but the Broncos whiz has been added to the bench in game two, with Ponga retaining the No.1 jumper despite his indiscretion. Dolphins powerhouse Kulikefu Finefeuiaki is in for his Origin debut and has big shoes to fill with mainstay Pat Carrigan out for an extended period with an ankle injury. Cowboys try-scoring freak Murray Taulagi joins the bench, with Broncos Gehamat Shibasaki (knee) and Ezra Mam (dropped) out for game two. Cowboy Heilum Luki is outside the team for now but could be a late inclusion.
Origin player of the series past 10 winners
| Year | Player | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tom Dearden | Queensland | Five-eighth |
| 2024 | Angus Crichton | New South Wales | Second-row |
| 2023 | Reuben Cotter | Queensland | Prop / Lock |
| 2022 | Patrick Carrigan | Queensland | Lock |
| 2021 | Tom Trbojevic | New South Wales | Centre |
| 2020 | Cameron Munster | Queensland | Five-eighth |
| 2019 | James Tedesco | New South Wales | Fullback |
| 2018 | Billy Slater | Queensland | Fullback |
| 2017 | Dane Gagai | Queensland | Winger |
| 2016 | Cameron Smith | Queensland | Hooker |
Read on for our NSW v Queensland tips and winner prediction for State of Origin Game 2
NSW v Queensland match information
- Kick-off: 8.05pm AEDT, Wednesday, June 17
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
- Head to head odds: NSW $1.82, Queensland $2
- Line betting: NSW (-1.5 points) $1.90, Queensland (+1.5 points) $1.90
- Match total: 43.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
2026 Wally Lewis Medal betting
$2.50 Nathan Cleary (NSW)
$7 James Tedesco (NSW)
$12 Hudson Young (NSW)
$13 Ethan Strange (NSW)
$17 Sam Walker (QLD)
$21 Cameron Munster (QLD), Isaah Yeo (NSW)
$26 Kalyn Ponga (QLD)
$34 Harry Grant (QLD), Haumole Olakauatu (NSW), Cameron Murray (NSW)
$41 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)
$51 Brian To’o (NSW), Addin Fonua-Blake (NSW), Kotoni Staggs (NSW), Stephen Crichton (NSW), Reece Robson (NSW)
$67+ Check prices for other players
NSW v Queensland betting tips
It’s all or nothing for Queensland here as they seek to level the series 1-1 and bring it to a decider in Brisbane. That is a fact that should not be overlooked if you fancy the Maroons on Wednesday … if they win here they will likely start favourites in a series decider at a rabid Suncorp Stadium.
Adding Payne Haas back into the mix should do wonders for the Blues’ go-forward, and Moses also is proven at this level and adds to the their kicking game, though Strange is desperately unlucky not be in the starting side after his stellar display on debut.
For the Queenslanders, we think having Walsh on the bench might be a stroke of genius. If he can check in with about 10 minutes to go in the first half when the big men are starting to get tired, he could cause all sorts of havoc.
As always with Origin we expect this to be another unmissable contest, with the match in the balance until late in the second half. We have a slight leaning to thew Blues thanks to Cleary’s impeccable form and also their wonderful record in matches at the MCG.
We think the Blues can seal the series but whatever unfolds, keep an eye on the casualty ward as the NRL season continues on Friday night, and who backs up from Origin always plays a big part in this time of the season.
NSW by 4 points.
- NSW -1.5 points/match total over 43.5 points at $3.45 with Australian betting sites.
- Brian To’o to score a try for NSW at $2 and Reece Walsh to score for Queesland. Check the price on game day for the dynamic Walsh.
State of Origin 2026 results/schedule
- Game I: Wednesday, May 27: NSW 22 (Young, Strange, Cleary, Tedesco tries; Cleary 3 goals) d Queensland 20 (Toia, Flegler, Tabuai-Fidow tries; Walker 3 goals, pen goal) at Accor Stadium, Sydney
- Game II: Wednesday, June 17: New South Wales v Queensland, MCG, Melbourne | 8.10pm
- Game III: Wednesday, July 8: Queensland v New South Wales, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane | 8.10pm
NRL round 16, 2026
- Friday, June 19: Knights v Dragons, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle | 8pm
- Saturday, June 20: Wests Tigers v Dolphins, Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney | 3pm
Titans v Panthers, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast | 5.30pm
Bulldogs v Sea Eagles, Accor Stadium, Sydney | 7.35pm - Sunday, June 21: Warriors v Cowboys, One NZ Stadium, Christchurch | 2pm
Storm v Raiders, AAMI Park, Melbourne | 4.05pm
Roosters v Sharks, Allianz Stadium, Sydney | 6.15pm
* Broncos, Eels, Rabbitohs have the bye
