Canadian Open final: Ben Shelton v Brandon Nakashima betting picks
The 2026 National Bank Canadian Open concludes with an all-American showdown as defending champion Ben Shelton takes on Brandon Nakashima in the biggest final of the latter’s career on Thursday night.
Shelton enters the Canadian Open title match as the 1.57 favourite with betting sites after another dominant week in Montreal, while Nakashima is priced at 2.35 as he chases a maiden Masters 1000 crown.
Shelton has underlined why he remains one of the world’s premier hard-court players, crushing Jakub Mensik in the quarter-finals before gaining revenge on Learner Tien with a commanding straight-sets semi-final victory to keep his title defence alive.
Nakashima has matched him every step of the way, comfortably defeating Luciano Darderi before ending the dream run of teenage Spaniard Rafael Jodar to book a place in his first.
Shelton has defeated Nakashima in all five of their previous matches, but Nakashima has undoubtedly taken his game to another level in recent times, and did take a set off his opponent in their last clash.
Below we’ve previewed the National Bank Open final and picked out our favourite betting markets ahead of Sunday’s championship match.
Shelton v Nakashima betting tips
WGL’s tennis betting guru has assessed the betting and found some value Shelton v Nakashima tips for the ATP Montreal Masters:
Ben Shelton -2.5 games handicap (1.94)
Shelton has had Nakashima’s measure throughout their rivalry, winning all five previous meetings, and that head-to-head record makes the -2.5 games handicap an appealing option. Their most recent clash at Indian Wells in 2025 was a perfect example, with Shelton edging a tight opening-set tiebreak before running away with the second set 7-6, 6-1 to comfortably cover this line.
Rather than taking a more aggressive handicap, the -2.5 games market offers a better balance of value and safety. Nakashima has shown he can stay competitive for stretches, but Shelton’s superior firepower and ability to pull away once he gains momentum make this a line he has every chance of clearing in the Montreal final.
First set over 10.5 games (2.15)
History suggests another tight opening set could be on the cards. Shelton and Nakashima have met five times on tour and every one of those matches, barring one, featured a first-set tiebreak, with opening-set scores of 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 and 6-7. Across those four meetings, they have played five tiebreak sets in total, underlining just how evenly matched they tend to be early in contests.
Both players possess strong serves and have consistently found it difficult to break one another in the opening exchanges. With that trend firmly established, backing over 10.5 games in the first set at attractive odds (it’s paying 2.15 with betway.com) looks like an excellent secondary play.
