Fremantle v Brisbane betting tips and prediction
Fremantle have a golden opportunity to claim their first AFL premiership when they face Brisbane in Saturday’s grand final at the MCG.
The Dockers ($2.15) head into the decider as outsiders against the Lions ($1.72), who received a major boost on Thursday evening when two-time Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale was cleared to play. Neale had initially been handed a one-match suspension for striking Hawks livewire Jack Ginnivan in the preliminary final.
The Dockers and Lions met just once during the season, with the WA team victorious in Brisbane, although the home team was terribly inaccurate. Normally reliable players like Logan Morris (1.4) and Kai Lohmann (0.3) let them down.
Dockers forwards Jye Amiss, Patrick Voss and Josh Treacy were dominant, and they will need them to fire again, with the Lions key position stocks exploitable in the right conditions, which are looming as less than perfect on Saturday.
Fremantle has resisted the temptation to make any changes to the team that defeated Sydney in the preliminary final, electing to leave Brennan Cox (calf) on the sidelines.
The Lions have also named an unchanged line-up, with Noah Answerth available, but overlooked, after injuring his ankle in the qualifying final.
Brisbane will have added motivation to win, with a third successive flag matching the great Lions team that won in 2001, 2002 and 2003, under the venerable Leigh Matthews.
The Dockers are still seeking their first AFL premiership, with their best result a grand final appearance against Hawthorn in 2013.
Fremantle v Brisbane betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the grand final market and found some value Fremantle v Brisbane tips:
Charlie Cameron 3+ goals
The Lions star has made a habit of firing in September and there is no bigger stage than Saturday. The Dockers lack an outstanding lockdown defender, leaving Cameron and fellow livewire Kai Lohmann looming as major danger men. Cameron is paying 2.90 to kick 3+ goals in what might be perfect conditions for him.
Jye Amiss 3+ goals
The Lions struggled to contain Fremantle’s key forwards the last time these clubs met. Amiss kicked four, while the Dockers’ big three combined for 11 goals. Brisbane remain slightly short down back and we think the Eric Hipwood experiment is over. Harris Andrews was magnificent in the second half against the Hawks, but the Lions can still be exploited in the air. We like Amiss for 3+ goals at $2.80. Keep a close eye on the Melbourne weather, because it might favour a low-scoring contest with the key position players battling.
Possessions betting predictions
Will Ashcroft already has two Norm Smith Medals and again looms as a key to the Lions midfield alongside Neale. Ashcroft looks serious value at $2.05 to reach 30 possessions. Neale, in what could be his final game for Brisbane before joining Collingwood, will also leave nothing in the tank. Darcy Wilmot and Josh Dunkley are consistent options for multi bettors.
The Dockers are harder to pin down, with a different player seemingly topping their possession count each week. Mainstays Caleb Serong, who is likely to receive close attention from Dunkley, and Andrew Brayshaw should spend plenty of time at the coalface, particularly if conditions are tough. We like talisman Brayshaw for 30+ possessions in what is his best chance yet to win a flag. He is also paying a juicy 3.60 to reach 30+ possessions and $15 to win the Norm Smith Medal.
Brisbane v Fremantle prediction
The Lions head into the grand final as favourites after Fremantle’s form faltered over the closing weeks of the season, but they still have to overcome Dockers ruck superstar Luke Jackson, who has been magnificent throughout the finals. Whichever midfield can give its superbly talented forward line the most opportunities is likely to decide this one. Brisbane have the edge through the middle, but Fremantle have the Jackson wildcard and a slightly more reliable backline. A win either way would not surprise, but if we’re forced to pick: Lions by 12 points.
