New Zealand v Tonga betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our New Zealand v Tonga betting tips and prediction for their Rugby League World Cup semi-final at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle on Saturday night.
New Zealand are 1.46 favourites to defeat Tonga (2.75), with betting sites expecting a competitive contest between two of the tournament’s strongest Pacific nations.
The Kiwis are giving Tonga a 6.5-point start on the handicap, while the total points line has been set at 40.5.
New Zealand recovered from a narrow 24-22 defeat against Australia in their opening match to demolish the Cook Islands 82-16 and Fiji 78-0, booking their place in the semi-finals in emphatic fashion.
Tonga have enjoyed an unbeaten campaign, defeating England 30-12 and Lebanon 36-0 before surviving a thrilling 20-18 encounter against Samoa to reach the final four.
The biggest talking point heading into Saturday’s clash is the potential return of Kalyn Ponga, who suffered a fractured arm against Australia just 22 days before the semi-final.
The Newcastle Knights superstar has been named in New Zealand’s extended squad and could make a remarkable comeback on his home ground if he passes fitness tests. Keano Kini has impressed at fullback in his absence, leaving the Kiwis with a difficult selection decision.
Tonga have received a major boost with halfback Isaiya Katoa returning from injury against Samoa, while their powerful forward pack, featuring Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo and Haumole Olakau’atu, will be crucial to their chances.
New Zealand v Tonga betting tips
WGL’s rugby league betting expert has assessed the market and found some value New Zealand v Tonga betting tips:
Casey McLean anytime try-scorer
McLean has been one of the stars of the World Cup, scoring seven tries in three matches, including four against Fiji in the quarter-finals. The young centre has been virtually unstoppable when given space and New Zealand’s attacking combinations have been particularly dangerous down the edges. Tonga will provide much tougher opposition than the Cook Islands and Fiji, but McLean’s finishing ability makes him an attractive option at 1.95. He has crossed the line in every match this tournament and we like his chances of continuing that streak.
Tonga +6.5 points
New Zealand have been scoring tries for fun, but Tonga represent a significant step up in opposition compared with their last two opponents. The Tongans have the forward power to match the Kiwis through the middle and showed tremendous resilience to defeat Samoa in a physical quarter-final. With Katoa back directing their attack and plenty of experience across the park, we expect Tonga to make this a genuine contest. New Zealand deserve favouritism, but the 6.5-point start looks generous in a match that will go down to the wire.
Jojo Fifita anytime try-scorer
Fifita has scored three tries across Tonga’s three World Cup matches and looks a decent option at 2.30 with NextBet (NextBet review) to cross the line again. The powerful winger scored twice against Lebanon before adding another against Samoa and has the speed and strength to trouble New Zealand’s edge defence. Tonga should enjoy enough attacking opportunities to give their outside backs a chance, particularly if their forwards can establish field position. We like Fifita, who we successfully backed to score against Samoa, to get across the stripe at some stage.
New Zealand v Tonga prediction
New Zealand have been devastating in attack since losing to Australia, but Tonga will provide a much sterner examination than their previous two opponents. The potential return of Ponga adds another dimension to the Kiwis’ attack, although his arm must remain a concern. We expect Tonga to match New Zealand physically and keep the contest close, but the Kiwis’ superior attacking combinations should eventually prove the difference. Our final New Zealand v Tonga prediction? New Zealand 24 defeat Tonga 20.
