Tonga v Samoa betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Tonga v Samoa betting tips and prediction for their Rugby League World Cup clash at CommBank Stadium in Sydney on Sunday evening.
Tonga are narrow 1.75 favourites with online betting sites to defeat Samoa (2.10), with both Pacific nations unbeaten heading into what promises to be one of the matches of the tournament.
Tonga opened their campaign with an impressive 30-12 victory over England, before comfortably accounting for Lebanon 36-0 last weekend.
Samoa have been equally impressive, thrashing France 78-4 in their opening match before dismantling Papua New Guinea 64-6. They have scored an incredible 142 points across their opening two matches, although they are yet to face opposition of Tonga’s quality.
There is plenty riding on this clash, with the winner guaranteed top spot in the combined Pool B and C standings and a place in the semi-finals. Samoa are virtually assured of progressing regardless of the result, while Tonga need a victory to guarantee their place in the final four.
Tonga welcome back star halfback Isaiya Katoa from an ankle injury, while Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Robert Toia and Tyson Frizell also return to strengthen an already formidable lineup.
Samoa have named an unchanged starting side, with Jarome Luai and Stephen Crichton providing plenty of experience, while Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Sualauvi Fa’alogo offer enormous attacking threats.
There is very little separating these two sides, although Tonga’s powerful forward pack and the return of Katoa could prove decisive in what should be a physical encounter.
Tonga v Samoa betting tips
WGL’s rugby league betting expert has assessed the market and found some value Tonga v Samoa betting tips:
Tonga to win
We expect this to be an extremely close contest, but Tonga look the better value at 1.75. Their forward pack, featuring Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo and Haumole Olakau’atu, is among the strongest in international rugby league and should provide the platform for Katoa to control proceedings. Samoa have been outstanding against France and Papua New Guinea, but this is a considerable step up in opposition. Tonga’s victory over England is arguably the strongest form reference of the two teams, and we are happy to back them at the available odds, which were at around 1.75 at the time of publication.
Under 45.5 total points
Both teams have been scoring points for fun, but we expect a very different contest on Sunday evening. Tonga and Samoa possess enormous forward packs and there should be plenty of physical exchanges through the middle of the field. Tonga have conceded just 12 points across their opening two matches, while Samoa have allowed only 10. With so much riding on the result, we expect both teams to place considerable emphasis on defence. Under 45.5 points looks a reasonable selection.
Jojo Fifita anytime try-scorer
The Tonga winger has crossed for two tries in his opening two World Cup appearances and looks an attractive option at 1.77 to score again. Fifita has the pace and finishing ability to trouble Samoa out wide, particularly with Katoa returning to direct Tonga’s attack. While we are expecting a relatively low-scoring contest, Tonga should still create opportunities on the edges and Fifita looks one of their most likely try-scorers.
Tonga v Samoa prediction
This should be an absolute cracker between two genuine World Cup contenders. Samoa have been devastating in attack, but Tonga have faced stronger opposition and their forward pack looks capable of matching anything the Samoans throw at them. The return of Katoa is another major boost and we expect him to play an important role in a narrow victory. Our final Tonga v Samoa prediction? Tonga 24 defeat Samoa 18.
