Fremantle v Collingwood betting tips and prediction

Fremantle needs to respond against an undermanned Collingwood at Optus Oval tonight, with the Dockers’ shocking outing against St Kilda putting the blowtorch on coach Justin Longmuir.

The Dockers have been installed a $1.82 favourite to defeat the Magpies ($2) with the visiting team losing close to 1000 games of experience from the line-up that lost to Geelong. The line has been set at a paltry 1.5 points. 

The Dockers, who many tipped to finish in the top four this season, have slumped to ninth on the ladder with four wins and four losses, but it was the manner of their 61-point loss to the Saints which has pundits questioning them. 

Their task will not get any easier against a Magpies team still smarting from a three-point loss to the Cats, which was compounded by a miss from Jack Crisp after the siren, which would have given them a victory and top spot on the ladder. 

The Dockers will be without midfielder Hayden Young for up to three months, following a reoccurrence of a hamstring injury against the Saints, while star veterans Nat Fyfe, Michael Walters and Jaeger O’Meara will not provide any relief, with the trio still over a month away from returning to playing. Nathan O’Driscoll could return via the second tier. 

The Magpies announced early in the week that Brody Mihocek, Scott Pendlebury, Jordan de Goey and Brayden Maynard would not make the trip west. The latter three are all being rested to manage existing conditions, while Mihocek injured his peck in his strong display against the Cats. The Pies have included young midfielder Ed Allan, Jeremy Howe, Lachie Sullivan and Oleg Markov.

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Fremantle v Collingwood odds

Start:	8.10pm AEST, May 8
Venue:	Optus Stadium, Perth
Head-to-head odds:	Fremantle ($1.82) v Collingwood ($2.00)
Line betting:	Fremantle -1.5 ($1.90) v Collingwood +1.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds:	Collingwood $5.50; Fremantle $34

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Fremantle v Collingwood tips

Our AFL betting expert has run the rule over the teams and found some value Fremantle v Collingwood betting tips:

Ed Allan to get 20 possessions

This is a real throw at the stumps, with the young Collingwood midfielder to be given a shot against the Dockers, and set to be given midfield time with Pendlebury and de Goey exiting the team. Allan has shown an ability to get plenty of the ball at VFL level and has recorded over 20 at AFL level in the past. He is paying a juicy $2.20 to record 20+ possessions. 

Josh Treacy to kick 3+ goals

Treacy is a powerhouse who was starved of opportunities last week. The Magpies defence is going to be stretched by the tall Dockers, and Treacy could benefit from receiving Billy Frampton, not Darcy Moore, as his opponent. Even if he cops Moore, he is the type of strong bodied played that has troubled Moore in the past. Look at the weather here, but we’re confident Treacy will get on the board and at $2.50 to kick three we think it’s worth a punt. 

Andrew Brayshaw to get 30+ possessions

The Magpies are unlikely to lock down on Brayshaw and Caleb Serong like the Saints did, with their midfield having the weapons to go toe-to-toe. This means Brayshaw and Serong are likely to get plenty of the pill, unless Longmuir sets one of them the challenge of running with Nick Daicos (who also looms as a lock for 30+ possessions). Brayshaw is the second favourite to get 30+ touches and is paying $1.90 to achieve it.

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Dockers v Magpies prediction 

Fremantle desperately needs to respond after their listless performance against St Kilda, which saw them completely strangled and made to look impotent. The task won’t get any easier against Collingwood, who are ranked the no.1 defensive team in the AFL; but having said that, they do play more of a front-half game, locking the ball in attack. This should provide Treacy and friends with more opportunities on the rebound. The Magpies struggled to score in the second half against Geelong and losing two of their main strike weapons — Mihocek and de Goey — leaves them vulnerable. The Magpies cannot be written off and we won’t be betting on Fremantle to win. Our final Dockers v Magpies prediction? Freo by 3 points.