Can the Lions get their AFL season back on track against Geelong?

Brisbane Lions face a daunting ask in their AFL round 15 clash against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium on Friday night. 

The Lions have been installed $2.85 outsiders against the rampaging Cats ($1.40), with Neds.com.au (Neds review) setting the line at 15.5 points. 

Brisbane suffered a shock loss to GWS at the Gabba on Saturday, with the result compounded by a season-ending knee injury to Jack Payne. 

The loss sees them drop to third on the ladder, six points behind Collingwood, and just two points behind their opponent this week. 

Geelong also lost a key defender  — Sam De Koning — in their massive win over a undermanned Essendon, which was not really a good guide to their form, given the Bombers woes. 

The Cats have got options at VFL level with Jack Bowes the carryover emergency for the Bombers clash, while young forward Ollie Henry (two goals) and Mitch Knevitt (20 possessions) played well at the lower level. 

The Lions are likely to include Darcy Gardiner to replace Payne, after he was held out of their VFL match on Sunday, with an eye on the Cats. 

Below we will give you are free Cats v Lions tip and winner prediction. 

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Cats v Lions odds

Start:	Friday, 7.40pm AEST, June 20
Venue:	GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Head-to-head odds:	Cats ($1.40) v Lions ($2.85)
Line betting:	Cats -15.5 ($1.88) v Lions +15.5 ($1.88)
Premiership odds:	Geelong $4.50; Brisbane $9

Geelong v Brisbane betting tips

Our AFL betting expert has cast their eye over the odds and found some value Geelong v Brisbane tips: 

Shannon Neale 2+ goals

The AustralianGamblingList’s AFL experts were dancing on the ceiling last weekend after laying into Shannon Neale at $15 to kick 4+ goals. We are leaning towards backing him to play another big games against the Lions, although being under lights, this game could be a low scoring affair. We figure Harris Andrews will take Cameron, and Neale will be left with a makeshift defender like Darcy Gardiner. 

Bailey Smth 30+ disposals

We’re not sure Smith can be tagged — he’s just too powerful with his running. The Brownlow Medal favourite is likely to go head-to-head with one of the Lions prime-movers, like Hugh McLuggage or Lachie Neale and a stack of ball seems inevitable, unless he gets injured. 

Cam Rayner 2+ goals

Rayner is built for the big stage, and loves it hard and tough, which it will be in Geelong on Friday night. While he’s not a huge ball-winner, expect Rayner to play close to goals in tricky conditions. He is paying $2.70 to kick 2+ goals. 

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Geelong v Brisbane prediction

Geelong deserves to be favourites in this game, but we’re not sure they should be so short, given the opposition they have faced in recent weeks. The Lions have been on the slide, and they desperately need to kick-start their season. Keep an eye on selection this week, because if it seems like the Lions have some momentum, we won’t hesitate to have a “saver” on them, given they are the reigning champion and sit third on the ladder. Our final Geelong v Brisbane prediction: Cats by one point.