NRL finals 2025, week 3: Betting tips & winner prediction

The NRL hits preliminary final weekend with a full head of steam, with minor premiers Canberra bowing out last weekend and Melbourne now hot favourites to land yet another title.

But looming large are the four-time defending champions Penrith, who travel to Brisbane for their preliminary final, and punters and bookmakers have settled on a Storm-Panthers grand final as the most likely match-up.

MORE: NRL BETTING TIPS

But we are not as certain, given the team we have been tipping strongly for the past few months, Cronulla, has done the right thing and continued to win. The Sharks are just one win against Melbourne away from makig the decider. The dream is alive.

Add to that that the Broncos have lucked out with a home preliminary final and there is certainly the scope for a least one upset this weekend. Read on for our thoughts on some value NRL bets this weekend.

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Teams news for week three of the NRL finals

Melbourne have some fresh troops with gun halfback Jahrome Hughes (forearm), fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion) and back-rower Shawn Blore (larynx) all ready to go, though that many changes could leave them a little rusty out of the blocks.

Meanwhile, the Sharks lose prop Tom Hazelton (concussion) from their tough win over the Raiders last Saturday, but they have an able replacement in Oregon Kaufusi. They are at close to full strength now though this match may test their resolve to back back up once more.

For Sunday’s match, the Broncos have wholesale changes from their epic qualifying final win against the Raiders a fortnight ago, headed by the return of halfback and captain Adam Reynolds after five games out with a hamstring injury. His halves partner Ezra Mam also returns on the bench from a hamstring injury. They do lose Billy Walters (ACL), while the man who has carried most of the playmaking duties Ben Hunt switches to five-eighth after filling in for Reynolds. The Broncos are also without energiser Pat Carrigan (suspended), with Tyson Smoothy taking his spot.

Penrith players Liam Martin (ribs) and Casey McLean (hip) have been cleared to play so the Panthers should put out the same 17 who smashed the Bulldogs last Sunday.

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2nd preliminary final: Melbourne Storm v Cronulla

Start:	7.50pm AEST, Friday, September 26
Venue:	AAMI Park, Melbourne
Head-to-head odds:	Melbourne Storm $1.38 v Cronulla-Sutherland ($3.05)
Line betting:	Melbourne Storm -8.5 ($1.90) v Cronulla-Sutherland +8.5 ($1.90)
Title odds:	Melbourne Storm $2.80; Cronulla-Sutherland $7.50

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Storm v Sharks

Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Friday night’s game.

Sharks +8.5 points/match total under 41.5 points

Both of these teams have shown outstanding goal line defence of late and no surprise if they are both hard to crack once again. This option is around $3.25 with online betting sites.

Harry Grant anytime try-scorer

Big game, big game player. Watch Grant try to crash over from dummy-half. At least $4 is available with most Aussie bookmakers and appears to be great value.

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Melbourne v Cronulla prediction 

We have ridden with the Sharks in the final few weeks of the regular season and then in two decisive finals victories against the Roosters and Raiders, but now they have to step it up a notch. The good news is we think they can; they will be battereed and bruised in comparison to their rivals here, but as long as their dynamic back line is intact, along with a tough and durable pack they are in the hunt.. Our final Storm v Sharks prediction? Sharks by 2 points.

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1st preliminary final: Broncos v Panthers

Start:	4.05pm AEST, Sunday, September 28
Venue:	Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Head-to-head odds:	Brisbane $2.25 v Penrith ($1.65)
Line betting:	Brisbane +3.5 ($1.90) v Penrith -3.5 ($1.90)
Series odds:	Brisbane $3.60; Penrith $3.20

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Broncos v Panthers

Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Sunday’s game.

Panthers -3.5 points/match total over 49.5 points

Penrith have hit top form with a fifth straight title within reach. This option is around $3.20 with online betting sites.

Dylan Edwards anytime try-scorer

Edwards is a just a star and is always involved. About $3.50 is available with most Aussie bookmakers.

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Broncos v Panthers prediction 

Both of these teams have been inconsistent this season, but the Broncos managed to put themselves into prime position with their incredible win against the Raiders in their only final. The bad news for Brisbane is the Panthers coach Ivan clear may have pulled a masterstroke by resting players in the final few rounds of the regular season. And the Panthers have won nine of their past 10 match agasinst the Broncos. Home ground is the biggest thing in the Bronco’ favour. Our final Brisbane v Panthers prediction? Panthers by 12 points.

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