Brisbane v Collingwood betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Brisbane v Collingwood betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 4 clash at the Gabba on Thursday night.
The Lions (1.38) are a short-priced favourite to defeat the Magpies (3.05), despite both teams having key injuries and the visiting team having a comparatively strong record against the reigning premier.
The Lions v Pies line has been set at 17.5 points, which will attract some suitors, while the over/under is at 177.5 and possibly a touch high.
Brisbane notched up their first win of 2026 against St Kilda on the weekend, after losing to the Western Bulldogs in Opening Round and being thrashed by Sydney in their second match. Both results they can easily be forgiven for.
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The Lions will again be without skipper Harris Andrews, with his loss compounded by a shoulder mishap to Darcy Gardiner, which will keep him out for a big chunk of the year. Without Jack Payne, who is overcoming a knee injury, the Lions are looking thin for talls down back.
The Lions have called on Darragh Joyce to play in the backline, while Jimmy Tunstill will replace Noah Answerth, who suffered a concussion against the Saints.
Collingwood boasts 2-1 record despite struggling to score at times, as they look to life without mainstay Brody Mihocek, who crossed to Melbourne for a longer contract.
The Magpies have also lost captain Darcy Moore to another hamstring injury after he went down midway through his team’s victory over GWS, while veteran Scott Pendlebury will miss with a calf ailment.
The Magpies have denied Nick Daicos is injured, saying the dynamo had suffered a corked leg and was just working his way through the injury, with this appearing to be true given he was on the golf course the day after the Giants game.
The Magpies have sprung a selection surprise by naming smalls Lachie Sullivan and Will Hayes for their first games for the season, with Will Parker and young midfielder Ed Allan missing out.
Brisbane v Collingwood betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Brisbane v Collingwood betting tips:
Logan Morris 3+ goals
The Lions young star played his first game of the year against the Saints and booted three goals from 17 possessions. The Magpies are likely to throw a mixture of the under-sized Brayden Maynard, Jeremy Howe and Billy Frampton at the key forward, and he has troubled them all in the past. Whether Morris will be as prolific with Oscar Allan in the team remains to be seen, but we’ll have a look at him for three goals at 2.80.
Darcy Cameron 2+ goals
The Magpies are going to attempt to stretch the Lions backline, in the absence of Andrews and now Darcy Gardiner, and with their second ruck, Oscar Steene proving a handful in the middle of the ground, they are likely throw Cameron forward. He was close to kicking a few last week and we will stick with him here at juicy odds of 6.00 to kick 2+ with Australian betting sites.
Will Ashcroft 30+ possessions
The Magpies generally don’t tag and if they can they will let their superstar Nick Daicos go toe-to-toe against anyone, which we think will end up being Ashcroft, with Hugh McCluggage out of the line-up. Others likely to get plenty of the ball for the Lions include Josh Dunkley and Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale, who has a stellar record against the Magpies, but has been down on his output this year.
Lions v Magpies prediction
Brisbane are likely to win this game, even though they are not playing as well, or are as fit as when they eclipsed the Pies in the finals last year. Collingwood did beat the Lions during the season and they are fielding much the same team. We do not think the Lions are deserved 1.42 favourites and we’re willing to take the Magpies to cover the line — a feat they are very good at doing in Craig McRae’s reign. Our final Brisbane v Collingwood prediction? Lions by eight points.
