New Zealand v Wales betting tips, odds, predictions – RWC 2019 third-place play-off
Welcome to our free predictions and odds update for match 47 of the Rugby World Cup: the bronze medal match between New Zealand and Wales at Tokyo Stadium on Friday, November 1.
Well, this is certainly not where the All Blacks expected to be, playing off for third, given they were the two-time defending champions and short-priced favourites to win this tournament.
But they can have few complaints as they were comprehensively beaten by England in their semi-final, with the final scoreline probably flattering to them and also a ringing endorsement of their wonderful technique in defence.
These third-place play-offs can often feel flat given the heartbreak the players and coaches are coming off after losing semi-finals and having their dreams of Rugby World Cup glory dashed.
But there are several subplots at play that make this clash much more meaningful than others that have come before.
Wales coach Warren Gatland and New Zealand’s Steve Hansen steer their teams in a Test match for the final time after long and successful reigns in their posts.
All Blacks legendary captain Kieran Read wears the famous jersey for the final time, along with other veterans from both teams.
Throw in the fact Wales haven’t beaten New Zealand since 1953 and have lost 30 Tests in a row against the Kiwis and there should be plenty of motivation.
Gatland has one last chance to beat his homeland team before heading back to New Zealand to coach the Chiefs in Super Rugby.
Hansen will want to end his wonderful All Blacks coaching career on a high note. “It will be the last week that this team is together and we have an opportunity to do it well. I know in talking to the boys we’ll get a response,” he said.
Check out our team previews to get the latest form, our tips for leading try-scorer from each team and where we think they will finish in the tournament.
Here are our New Zealand v Wales third-place play-off predictions and odds for their clash at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.
Rugby World Cup Match 47: bronze final – New Zealand v Wales
Kick-off: 6pm local time (GMT +9)
Venue: Tokyo Stadium
New Zealand v Wales odds
Head to head odds: New Zealand $1.09, Wales $7.25
Handicap line odds: New Zealand (-17.5 points) $1.91, Wales (+17.5 points) $1.91
New Zealand v Wales – past 10 meetings
November 7, 2009: New Zealand 19 d Wales 12, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
June 19, 2010: New Zealand 42 d Wales 9, Carisbrook, Dunedin
June 26, 2010: New Zealand 29 d Wales 10, Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
November 27, 2010: New Zealand 37 d Wales 25, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
November 24, 2012: New Zealand 33 d Wales 10, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
November 22, 2014: New Zealand 34 d Wales 16, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
June 11, 2016: New Zealand 39 d Wales 21, Eden Park, Auckland
June 18, 2016: New Zealand 36 d Wales 22, Westpac Stadium, Wellington
June 25, 2016: New Zealand 46 d Wales 6, Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
November 25, 2017: New Zealand 33 d Wales 18, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Previous World Cup 2019 matches:
New Zealand 23 (Scott Barrett, George Bridge tries; Richie Mo’unga 2 cons, Mo’unga 2, Beauden Barrett pens) d South Africa 13 (Pieter-Steph du Toit try; Handre Pollard con, pen, drop goal). Referee: Jerome Garces.
New Zealand 63 (1 penalty try, Brad Weber 2, Scott Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Beauden Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Rieko Ioane, Sonny Bill Williams tries; Richie Mo’unga 8 cons) d Canada 0 at Oita Stadium. Referee: Romain Poite.
New Zealand 71 (Anton Lienert-Brown 2, Sevu Reece 2, Ben Smith 2, Jordie Barrett, Joe Moody, TJ Perenara, Angus Ta’avao, Sam Whitelock tries; Jordie Barrett 8 cons) d Namibia 9 (Damian Stevens 3 pens) at Tokyo Olympic Stadium. Referee: Pascal Gauzere.
QF: New Zealand 46 (Aaron Smith 2, Beauden Barrett, Jordie Barrett, George Bridge, Codie Taylor, Matt Todd tries; Richie Mo’unga 4 cons, pen) d Ireland 14 (1 penalty try; Robbie Henshaw try; Joe Carbery con). Referee: Nigel Owens.
SF: England 19 (Manu Tuilagi try; Owen Farrell con, George Ford 4 pens) d New Zealand 7 (Ardie Savea try; Richie Mo’unga con). Referee: Nigel Owens.
Wales 43 (Jonathan Davies, Justin Tipuric, Josh Adams, Liam Williams, Tomos Williams, George North tries; Dan Biggar 4 cons, 1 pen, Leigh Halfpenny con) d Georgia 14 (Shalva Mamukashvili, Levan Chilachava; Tedo Abzhandadze 2 cons). Referee: Luke Pearce.
Wales 29 (Gareth Davies, Hadleigh Parkes tries; Daniel Biggar, Rhys Patchell cons, Patchell 3 pens, Biggar, Patchell drop goals) d Australia 25 (Adam Ashley-Cooper, Dane Haylett-Petty, Michael Hooper tries; Matt To’omua 2 cons, Bernard Foley, To’omua pens). Referee: Romain Poite.
Wales 29 (Josh Adams 3, Liam Williams tries; Daniel Biggar 2, Rhys Patchell cons, Patchell pen) d Fiji 17 (1 penalty try, Kini Murimurivalu, Josua Tuisova tries). Referee: Jerome Garces.
Wales 35 (1 penalty try; Josh Adams, Gareth Davies, Nicky Smith, Tomos Williams tries; Leigh Halfpenny 4 cons) d Uruguay 13 (German Kessler try; Felipe Berchesi con, 2 pens). Referee: Angus Gardner.
QF: Wales 20 (Ross Moriarty, Aaron Wainwright tries; Daniel Biggar 2 cons, 2 pens) d France 19 (Charles Ollivon, Sebastien Vahaamahina, Virimi Vakatawa tries; Romain Ntamack 2 cons). Referee: Jaco Peyper.
SF: South Africa 19 (Damian de Allende try; Handre Pollard con, 4 pens) d Wales 16 (Josh Adams try; Leigh Halfpenny con, Daniel Biggar 3 pens). Referee: Jerome Garces.
New Zealand v Wales tips RWC2019
Wales +17.5 points at $1.91
We think this handicap line is way out of whack, with Wales showing outstanding defensive qualities and resilience even as they fell to the Springboks in the semi-finals. We expect this match to open up a lot more as both teams will be keen to play some rugby after extremely dour showings in the semi-finals. The All Blacks’ attack was effectively blunted by the English and while it’ll be a little easier here we really like the Welsh with the big start.
Match points total over 52.5 at $1.91
Expect both teams to play with an adventurous spirit. They will want to leave Japan on a high and some big names will have not had the best of tournaments and will want to get on the scoresheet. It should be a great game to watch.
New Zealand v Wales prediction
This really is a great opportunity for Wales to finally end the dominance the All Blacks have held over them for so long. The $7.25 seems an enormous price for a quality team such as Wales who comfortably beat the Wallabies here and pushed the Springboks all the way. Our gut feel is the All Blacks will get over the line by about 10 points as they lift to send Hansen and the like of Read off as winners. But by no means is this Kiwi team the same dominant force it was at the previous World Cups, so they are there for the taking, especially if the Welsh can jump them early as England did in the semi.
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