Paraguay v Australia betting tips and prediction
Australia faces a defining Group D clash on Thursday night (US time) when the Socceroos take on Paraguay at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Tony Popovic’s side opened their campaign with an impressive 2-0 win over Türkiye before falling 2-0 to the United States, leaving the Socceroos second in Group D on three points heading into the final group match.
Paraguay also sits on three points after a 1-0 win over Türkiye, meaning this is effectively a winner-takes-all clash for second spot. Australia only needs a draw to advance, while Paraguay must win to leapfrog the Socceroos and guarantee progression.
Paraguay are priced at 2.85 to defeat Australia (3.90), while the draw is paying 2.20 with betting sites. The market expects a tight and tense encounter, with Australia slight outsiders despite only needing a point.
The Socceroos were well beaten by the USA but improved significantly after half-time and remain in a strong position to qualify for the knockout stage. Popovic’s side has already shown it can defend with discipline and frustrate stronger opponents.
Paraguay arrives with momentum after grinding out a hard-fought win over Türkiye. Gustavo Alfaro’s side is extremely well organised, defends deep and looks to strike through transitions and set pieces.
The stakes are enormous. A draw or win sends Australia through in second place, likely setting up a more favourable round-of-32 fixture. A loss would leave the Socceroos relying on third-place qualification scenarios.
Group D has delivered major drama throughout this tournament and this final round clash shapes as one of the biggest matches of Australia’s World Cup campaign.
Below we will run you through the latest Paraguay and Australia team news, present our free tips and give you our match prediction.
Paraguay team news
Paraguay enters this decisive clash knowing only a win guarantees progression to the knockout stage and second place in Group D.
Gustavo Alfaro’s side secured a gritty 1-0 win over Türkiye in their second group game, once again showing the defensive resilience that carried them through South American qualifying.
The major blow for Paraguay is the suspension of star winger Miguel Almirón, who was sent off against Türkiye. His absence removes one of their most dangerous transition threats and a player capable of changing matches with pace and direct running.
Paraguay generally sit compact, concede possession and look to counter quickly. They are not a free-scoring side, but they remain dangerous from set pieces and direct attacks.
Alfaro’s side will need to balance patience with urgency, knowing a draw is unlikely to be enough to safely progress.
Australia team news
Australia has been forced into changes ahead of this critical fixture after injuries to two key players from the side that started against the USA.
Right-back Jacob Italiano has been ruled out with an adductor injury suffered in training, while Mat Leckie remains sidelined after sustaining a hamstring injury in the loss to the Americans.
Jason Geria and Kai Trewin are the leading candidates to replace Italiano, while Popovic may also consider a structural adjustment if he wants greater defensive security.
Further forward, Nestory Irankunda, Connor Metcalfe and Cristian Volpato are all pressing for larger roles after making positive impacts off the bench against the USA.
Australia’s approach is unlikely to change dramatically. The Socceroos know a draw is enough and should look to stay compact, defend with discipline and threaten through transitions, aerial contests and set pieces.
Paraguay vs Australia odds
Match Result
- Paraguay2.85
- Draw2.20
- Australia3.90
Best Bets
- Draw2.20
- Under 2.5 Goals2.25
- 1-1 Correct Score6.89
Paraguay vs Australia betting tips
WGL’s football betting expert has analysed the numbers and found three betting angles worth considering for this huge Group D clash. Here are our free World Cup Paraguay vs Australia picks:
Nestory Irankunda anytime goalscorer
Irankunda remains Australia’s biggest central attacking threat and this feels like the type of game where the Socceroos will look to play direct, win aerial contests and attack set pieces. Paraguay are compact defensively, but Irankunda has that magic that can score from nothing. He is paying 4.00 to score a goal with Aussie betting sites.
Under 2.5 total goals
This has all the signs of a cagey, tactical and tense contest. Australia only needs a draw to advance, while Paraguay are not known for high-scoring football under Alfaro. With both teams strong defensively and plenty at stake, a low-scoring game looks likely.
Draw
The draw at 2.20 looks the standout betting angle. Australia knows a point gets the job done and should approach this with discipline and control, while Paraguay may struggle to consistently break down the Socceroos. This shapes as a physical contest where neither side gives much away.
Paraguay vs Australia prediction
The dynamics of this game point strongly towards a tight and nervy contest. Australia only needs a draw and should be comfortable sitting compact, defending deep and looking to frustrate Paraguay. The South Americans will eventually need to push forward in search of a winner, but breaking down Australia’s disciplined defensive structure may prove difficult. The Socceroos have enough resilience to avoid defeat, while Paraguay should still create enough pressure to find chances of their own. Our final Paraguay vs Australia prediction is a 1-1 draw.
