Japanese St Leger betting tips for Sunday, October 25
William Demamp
October 24, 2026
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The 2026 G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger) at Kyoto Racecourse on Sunday, October 25, shapes as one of the most significant races of the Japanese season, with outstanding three-year-old Lovcen attempting to complete the prestigious Japanese Triple Crown.
Run over 3000 metres on turf, the Kikuka Sho is the final leg of Japan’s three-year-old Classic series and presents a demanding examination of stamina. This year’s 18-runner field includes several proven Group winners, emerging stayers and horses stepping up significantly in distance.
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Lovcen arrives as the clear favourite after winning the Japanese 2000 Guineas and Japanese Derby earlier this year. Victory would make him just the ninth horse to complete Japan’s Triple Crown, joining an illustrious group that includes Deep Impact, Orfevre and Contrail.
The Haruki Sugiyama-trained colt has won five of his six starts and returned from a break with victory in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai over 2400 metres at Hanshin on September 21.
His main dangers include the progressive Danon History, last-start G2 winner Justin Chicago and Japanese Derby placegetter Basse Terre. Experienced jockeys Christophe Lemaire and Yutaka Take also have strong chances in a race where stamina and tactical positioning are likely to prove decisive.
Below we break down the Kikuku Sho runners, form and prospects and present you with our free betting tips and strategy.
2026 Kikuka Sho – Race Details
RACE
G1 Kikuka Sho
DATE
25 October 2026
VENUE
Kyoto, Japan
DISTANCE
3000m – Turf
RUNNERS
18
RACE TYPE
3YO Group 1
Japanese St Leger Runners and Form Guide
Our runner-by-runner assessment covers all 18 horses in the 2026 Kikuka Sho, including their recent form, jockey and trainer combinations, and available win and place odds. All runners carry 57kg.
1. M’s Begin Barrier 1
Jockey
Mirai Iwata
Trainer
Y. Tomomichi
Weight
57kg
Form
7x0x5
A winner over 2000m who was outclassed when 14th in the Japanese Derby. Rebounded with a respectable fifth in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai over 2400m at Hanshin. Needs further improvement to trouble the leading contenders.
Win: 41.00 | Place: 7.00
2. Congestus Barrier 2
Jockey
Atsuya Nishimura
Trainer
Tomokazu Takano
Weight
57kg
Form
x19x6
Won a G2 over 2200m at Kyoto in May before fading to sixth over 2400m at Hanshin last start. Has demonstrated the ability to compete at this level and could improve with a more economical run. Place claims.
Win: 19.00 | Place: 3.80
3. Audacia Barrier 3
Jockey
Akihide Tsumura
Trainer
T. Tezuka
Weight
57kg
Form
1x0x3
Showed considerable ability when winning a G2 over 1800m at Nakayama in March. Returned to form with third in a G2 over 2200m on September 13. The extra distance is a question, but his class makes him worth considering for the placings.
Win: 16.00 | Place: 3.70
4. Shonan Gulf Barrier 4
Jockey
Osuke Tayama
Trainer
Naosuke Sugai
Weight
57kg
Form
x00x0
Won his first two starts, including a G3 over 1800m at Sapporo as a juvenile. Subsequent performances have been disappointing and he has yet to demonstrate the stamina required for this assignment. Difficult to recommend.
Win: 201.00 | Place: 23.00
5. Justin Chicago Barrier 5
Jockey
Yusuke Hara
Trainer
Keisuke Miyata
Weight
57kg
Form
x21x1
One of the most progressive runners in the field, chasing a third consecutive victory after winning a G2 over 2200m at Nakayama on September 13. Arrives in excellent form and warrants serious consideration despite the rise to 3000m. Is well price with betting sites and looms as a strong rough chance.
Win: 16.00 | Place: 3.70
6. Basse Terre Barrier 6
Jockey
Yuga Kawada
Trainer
Takashi Saito
Weight
57kg
Form
103×0
Produced an impressive staying performance when storming home from last to finish third behind Lovcen in the Japanese Derby. Disappointed when 13th over 2200m at Nakayama last start, but his Derby effort suggests the additional distance could suit. A genuine rebound candidate.
Win: 23.00 | Place: 4.40
7. Large Ensemble Barrier 7
Jockey
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer
Ryo Takei
Weight
57kg
Form
618×7
Has won twice at distances up to 2200m and finished a respectable eighth in the Japanese 2000 Guineas. Has some staying potential, although his recent form leaves him needing improvement. An outside place chance.
Win: 81.00 | Place: 13.00
8. Lovcen Barrier 8 TOP SELECTION
Jockey
Kohei Matsuyama
Trainer
Haruki Sugiyama
Weight
57kg
Form
x11x1
The outstanding colt of his generation, with five victories from six starts, including the Japanese 2000 Guineas and Japanese Derby. Returned with a narrow but impressive victory over 2400m at Hanshin in September. Has already demonstrated exceptional class, versatility and a strong finishing sprint. The 3000m journey presents a new challenge, but he is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to complete the Triple Crown.
Win: 2.00 | Place: 1.25
9. Going To Sky Barrier 9
Jockey
Yutaka Take
Trainer
Yuki Uehara
Weight
57kg
Form
x14x6
A G2 winner over 2400m at Tokyo in April who finished fourth in the Japanese Derby before a sixth-place effort over 2200m at Nakayama. The son of Triple Crown winner Contrail is partnered by legendary jockey Yutaka Take, who is chasing a sixth Kikuka Sho victory. A serious contender if he settles and stays the distance.
Win: 12.00 | Place: 3.00
10. Danon History Barrier 10 MAIN DANGER
Jockey
Christophe Lemaire
Trainer
Noriyuki Hori
Weight
57kg
Form
7x11x
An exciting staying prospect with three victories from four starts. Comes into this race after consecutive wins over 2600m at Hakodate and Sapporo, including an emphatic eight-length victory at Sapporo on August 16. Has a stronger staying profile than many of his rivals and benefits from the services of Christophe Lemaire, who is chasing a fourth consecutive Kikuka Sho victory. The most obvious threat to Lovcen.
Win: 4.60 | Place: 1.75
11. Ask Edinburgh Barrier 11
Jockey
Y. Iwata
Trainer
Yuichi Fukunaga
Weight
57kg
Form
240×4
A dual winner over 1800m who performed creditably when fourth in a G2 over 2200m at Nakayama on September 13. Has shown enough ability to warrant consideration, although his effectiveness over 3000m remains unproven.
Win: 17.00 | Place: 3.75
12. Sanono Greater Barrier 12
Jockey
Hironobu Tanabe
Trainer
Kazuyuki Ogata
Weight
57kg
Form
9x1x0
Has won three races at distances up to 2000m, including a G3 over 1800m at Fukushima. Finished 11th over 2200m at Nakayama last start and faces a considerable rise in distance. Needs to improve significantly.
Win: 51.00 | Place: 8.50
13. King Glory Barrier 13
Jockey
Yuji Tannai
Trainer
M. Koga
Weight
57kg
Form
002×1
An improving stayer who led throughout to win over 2500m at Nakayama on September 19. All three career victories have come when leading, making him a possible pace influence. His proven ability over longer distances gives him some appeal at big odds.
Win: 51.00 | Place: 8.50
14. Majorelle Bleu Barrier 14
Jockey
Keita Tosaki
Trainer
Y. Tomomichi
Weight
57kg
Form
211×1
A progressive colt who has won his last three races, including two over 2400m. Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi believes further distance should not present a problem. This is a significant rise in class, but his improving form and staying credentials make him an interesting outsider.
Win: 41.00 | Place: 7.00
15. Sea To Summit Barrier 15
Jockey
Manabu Sakai
Trainer
Tatsuya Yoshioka
Weight
57kg
Form
212×3
His only victory came over 2400m at Kyoto in May, but he showed further promise when third in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai at Hanshin on September 21. Has experience at the track and over a staying distance. A possible place contender.
Win: 34.00 | Place: 5.50
16. Shonan Hayanami Barrier 16
Jockey
K. Ikezoe
Trainer
Kunihiko Watanabe
Weight
57kg
Form
11×0
Won two of his first three starts, including a Listed race over 2000m at Kyoto in January. However, he was well beaten when 10th over 2400m at Hanshin last start. Needs to produce a substantial improvement.
Win: 81.00 | Place: 13.00
17. Charing Cross Barrier 17
Jockey
Yukito Ishikawa
Trainer
Takeshi Okumura
Weight
57kg
Form
1x1x7
A full brother to Japanese Derby winner Croix Du Nord, with three victories from seven starts. Finished seventh over 2200m at Niigata last time and faces a difficult assignment from a wide draw. Has some upside but must improve considerably.
Win: 101.00 | Place: 16.00
18. Narita Esperanza Barrier 18
Jockey
Yuichi Kitamura
Trainer
Yuichi Fukunaga
Weight
57kg
Form
x11x0
Has three victories from eight starts at distances up to 2600m, giving him some established staying form. However, he faded badly when 12th over 2200m at Hanshin last start. Faces a difficult task from the outside barrier.
Win: 126.00 | Place: 17.00
Japanese St Leger Tips – What the Experts Say
Six Japanese racing analysts have provided their selections for the 2026 Kikuka Sho, with Lovcen attracting overwhelming support. Five of the six tipsters have included the Triple Crown hopeful among their leading three selections, while three have nominated him as their top pick.
Danon History also features prominently, appearing in three sets of selections, while Going To Sky has attracted support from three analysts. Justin Chicago and Basse Terre are among the other horses receiving multiple mentions.
Japanese Racing Tipsters – Top Three Selections
| Tipster |
1st Selection |
2nd Selection |
3rd Selection |
Kuwabara Netkeiba | (10) Danon History | (8) Lovcen | (6) Basse Terre |
Onikubo Netkeiba | (8) Lovcen | (1) M’s Begin | (5) Justin Chicago |
Ibuki Netkeiba | (8) Lovcen | (10) Danon History | (5) Justin Chicago |
Suzuki Netkeiba | (8) Lovcen | (10) Danon History | (9) Going To Sky |
Ando Racing Lab | (8) Lovcen | (9) Going To Sky | (3) Audacia |
Ota Sports Navi | (9) Going To Sky | (8) Lovcen | (6) Basse Terre |
Most Popular Selections
(8) Lovcen5 of 6 tipsters
(10) Danon History3 of 6 tipsters
(9) Going To Sky3 of 6 tipsters
(5) Justin Chicago2 of 6 tipsters
(6) Basse Terre2 of 6 tipsters
Japanese St Leger Betting Tips and Prediction
Lovcen (8) is the clear horse to beat in the 2026 Kikuka Sho. His victories in the first two legs of the Japanese Triple Crown establish him as the class runner, while his successful return over 2400m at Hanshin suggests he has retained his outstanding ability.
The principal concern is the step up to 3000m, a distance none of the runners has yet tackled. At odds of around 2.00, Lovcen is a short-priced favourite, but his record and proven Group 1 ability justify his position at the head of the market.
Danon History (10) represents the biggest danger. His recent victories over 2600m provide compelling evidence of his staying potential, while Christophe Lemaire’s exceptional record in the Kikuka Sho adds further confidence. He appeals as the most likely runner to capitalise if Lovcen fails to see out the trip.
Going To Sky (9) is another serious contender, particularly with Yutaka Take aboard. His fourth in the Japanese Derby and previous Group 2 success over 2400m make him an attractive option for the placings.
Basse Terre (6) is the value runner at bigger odds. His powerful finish to take third in the Japanese Derby suggests he could appreciate the extra distance, provided he can put his disappointing latest performance behind him.
World Gambling List – Kikuka Sho Selections
Best Bet
(8) Lovcen
Win odds: 2.00
Main Danger
(10) Danon History
Win odds: 4.60
Next Best
(9) Going To Sky
Win odds: 12.00
Value Selection
(6) Basse Terre
Win odds: 23.00
Suggested finishing order: (8) Lovcen – (10) Danon History – (9) Going To Sky – (6) Basse Terre