Hawthorn v Collingwood betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Collingwood v Hawthorn betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 23 clash at the MCG on Saturday night.
The Hawks (1.35) are heavy favourites to defeat the Magpies (3.25) despite being lucky to escape with a draw earlier this season.
The Hawks vs Pies line has been set at 18.5 points, while the over/under total points mark is currently sitting at 174.5, on what is predicted to be a clear night in Melbourne.
The Hawks have recalled Bailey Macdonald, who kicked three goals last time against the Pies, and included first-gamer Max Beattie for what will be captain James Sicilys’ 200th game.
Ruckman Ned Reeves and Sam Butler have been dropped, which means the athletic Mabior Chol is likey to do some ruckwork against Darcy Cameron and back-up Dan McStay.
The third-placed Hawks were thumped by the Brisbane Lions in Brisbane on Friday, with this clash now an opportunity to stitch up their top four position, while a loss would leave them needing to win in Perth against West Coast in the final round.
The Magpies have recalled some starpower with Jordan De Goey and Scott Pendlebury replacing Harvey Harrison and Lachie Sullivan, who were not awful in their win over West Coast in Perth.
Collingwood’s champion Steele Sidebottom has announced his retirement at the end of the season, which means the Magpies will be desperate to put on a showing for the 373-game veteran.
The Magpies are also locked in a battle to sneak into the top six, but they would need to win their remaining two games and hope results fall their way, with a wildcard playoff a more realistic goal, especially given they play Brisbane in the final round.
Hawthorn v Collingwood betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has examined the odds and found some value Hawthorn v Collingwood tips:
Nick Watson 3+ goals
Watson was wrapped in a cocoon of horror by Harry Perryman for much of the Hawks last encounter against the Pies, before his untimely hamstring injury. This time, given Perryman is again out with a hamstring, he’s likely to face Isaac Quaynor, who has been torched by this kind of player in the past. We’re looking forward to this battle, but Watson must be respected and has value at 2.25 for 3+ goals. If you want more value Dylan Moore has a good record against Collingwood and is around 8.00 for 3+ goals.
Lachie Shultz 2+ goals
The Magpies small has been playing closer to goal in the absence of Jamie Elliott and his scoring output has gone up significantly, more akin to his Fremantle days. He’s nice value for 2+ at 2.85 with Australian betting sites.
Jordan De Goey 25+ possessions
De Goey comes back into the Pies line-up fresh, after missing the West Coast match, and they will be hoping he can recapture his golden form from a month ago. He’s now also outstanding value at 4.20 to reach 25+ possessions, with the danger being he’ll spend more time forward given Ned Long’s output in recent weeks. Long himself is over 9.00 to reach 25+ possessions, a feat he did against West Coast last start.
Hawthorn v Collingwood prediction
We expect Collingwood to hit the Hawks hard given their top six hopes are on the line, with resting players always an option if they lose this. The Hawks will also have more flexibility if they win, given the top four will be locked in. The Magpies will again be reliant on their superstar Nick Daicos, but the return of De Goey will help, and give them another weapon against the talented Hawks. But ultimately this match is the Hawks to lose, and the pressure is on them to live up to expectations, especially given the hiding they received by the Lions and the Magpies massive injury list. Our final Hawks v Magpies prediction? Hawks by 12 points, with the 1-39 point margin market our pick.
