South Africa v Australia betting tips & prediction for 3rd Test
South Africa and Australia will head into the third and deciding Test at Newlands in Cape Town on Tuesday, October 27, with the series locked at 1-1 and both teams facing significant selection decisions.
Australia appeared to have one hand on the series trophy after crushing the Proteas by 214 runs in the opening Test in Durban, but the home side responded emphatically with an innings and 31-run victory in Gqeberha.
The Proteas are now favoured to win the series, paying 1.92 to win the second Test with international betting sites, while the Australians are priced at 2.25.
The Australians were dismissed for just 99 in their first innings of the second Test, exposing familiar batting weaknesses that have plagued Pat Cummins’ team despite their position at the top of the ICC World Test Championship standings.
Australia will welcome back Cameron Green, who has recovered from an abdominal injury sustained during the ODI series. However, the Western Australian all-rounder is expected to play exclusively as a batsman, with his bowling workload still restricted.
Josh Inglis is also available after recovering from a broken finger, increasing the pressure on Australia’s struggling middle order. Nic Maddinson and Beau Webster are among those whose positions could come under scrutiny following the heavy defeat in Gqeberha.
The tourists also face a difficult decision over whether to recall Nathan Lyon, with Scott Boland producing another outstanding performance in the second Test. Australia could be reluctant to sacrifice one of their four frontline quicks, particularly given the success fast bowlers have enjoyed at Newlands.
South Africa have their own selection headache after Anrich Nortje was ruled out with a groin injury. Gerald Coetzee, Corbin Bosch and Dane Paterson are among the candidates to replace the express paceman, while experienced spinner Keshav Maharaj could also return.
The Proteas will again look to Marco Jansen, who produced a remarkable all-round performance in Gqeberha, scoring 85 and claiming five wickets as South Africa squared the series.
History offers some encouragement for Australia, who have won 10 of their 14 Tests at Newlands. However, South Africa have won three of the past four meetings between the countries at the Cape Town venue, including their most recent encounter in 2018.
Conditions could again favour the fast bowlers, who have claimed 84 wickets at Newlands since 2020, compared with just nine for the spinners.
The third Test begins at 10.30am local time on Tuesday, October 27 (7.30pm AEDT), with Australian television coverage available through Fox Cricket and Kayo. South Africans can watch via SuperSports Cricket.
South African squad:
Temba Bavuma (c), Marques Ackerman, David Bedingham, Corbin Bosch, Matthew Breetzke, Gerald Coetzee, Simon Harmer, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Wiaan Mulder, Senuran Muthusamy, Dane Paterson, Kagiso Rabada, Ryan Rickelton, Kyle Verreynne
Australian squad:
Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Cameron Green, Sam Harper, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Nic Maddinson, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Beau Webster
South Africa v Australia betting tips 3rd Test
WGL’s cricket betting expert has assessed the series decider and identified three betting markets worth considering ahead of the third Test in Cape Town.
Marco Jansen most wickets in Aussies first innings
Jansen was outstanding in the second Test, combining a destructive innings of 85 with a five-wicket haul to help dismantle the Australians. The towering left-arm quick has become one of the most dangerous bowlers in Test cricket, particularly when conditions offer movement. Australia’s fragile batting order struggled badly against the South African seamers in Gqeberha, and Newlands has traditionally rewarded quality fast bowling. With Jansen bowling confidently and Australia’s top order looking vulnerable, we’ll back the South African to claim the most wickets in the tourists’ first innings.
Steve Smith to top score for Australia
Australia desperately need their senior batsmen to stand up after the embarrassment of being dismissed for 99 in the second Test. Smith remains the most accomplished player in the Australian batting order and his experience against South Africa’s formidable pace attack could prove invaluable. The former captain battled a stiff neck during the Gqeberha Test but is expected to be available for the series decider. With uncertainty surrounding several positions in the batting order, Smith looks the most reliable option to top score for Australia in their first innings. He is paying around the 5.00 quote with online betting sites.
Kagiso Rabada man of the match
Rabada’s return to the South African attack made an immediate difference in Gqeberha, where he claimed important wickets in both Australian innings. The experienced fast bowler will be particularly dangerous at Newlands, where the combination of pace, bounce and movement has historically made life difficult for visiting batsmen. Australia’s problems against high-quality seam bowling have been exposed throughout the series, and Rabada has the ability to destroy a batting lineup in a single spell. He looks a strong contender to finish as South Africa’s leading wicket-taker across the match, which means he will be a big chance of man of the match honours, which is paying around the 12.00 quote. Our one query is the short turnaround from the second Test, after his injury layoff, which forced him out of the first Test.
Proteas v Australia prediction
Australia might have the better overall record at Newlands, but their batting problems, which we identified prior to the series, are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The collapse to be all out for 99 in Gqeberha was particularly concerning, and the return of Green, while welcome, is unlikely to solve all their problems.
South Africa will enter the deciding Test with considerable confidence after their comprehensive victory in the second match, and their pace attack looks capable of exploiting the Australians’ technical weaknesses once again.
The Proteas also have a formidable recent record against Australia in Cape Town, winning three of their past four encounters at Newlands.
While Australia’s bowling attack remains world-class, the tourists cannot continue relying on their lower order to compensate for failures among their specialist batsmen. The availability of Green and Inglis gives the selectors options, but wholesale changes immediately before a series decider would carry their own risks.
We’re backing South Africa to complete the turnaround and claim a 2-1 series victory. The home side’s fast bowlers look well placed to exploit the conditions, and the Proteas appear to have the more settled batting lineup. Take South Africa to win the third Test, particularly if South African betting sites offer better than even-money odds.
