Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast betting tips and prediction

Welcome to our Brisbane v Gold Coast betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL semi-final at the Gabba on Saturday night. 

The Lions are a $1.57 favourite to defeat the Suns ($2.40) with this clash marking the first time the two Queensland outfits have played in a finals match. 

Neds Australia has set the line at 8.5 points in the Lions’ favour, which looks generous given their injuries and the fact the Suns thrashed them last time they played. 

Gold Coast moved into the semi-final with a one-point victory over Fremantle, who were storming over the top of the young Suns, but their former captain David Swallow kicked a point late to secure their first-ever finals victory. 

The Lions will be hurting after losing their qualifying final to Geelong at the MCG last Saturday night, with the win soured further by a serious calf injury to Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale, which will keep him out for the remainder of the season. 

The Lions had the top five possession winners on the ground, but simply could not score against the dour Cats backline, and the absence of the retired Joe Daniher was never so keenly felt. 

Brisbane has recalled Bruce Reville and Oscar McInerney for the clash, with Neale and the dropped Sam Day going out of the team. 

The Suns have named an unchanged line-up after getting through the Dockers conquest unscathed.

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Lions v Suns odds and match info

Start:	7.35pm AEST, September 13, 2025
Venue:	Gabba, Brisbane
Head-to-head odds:	Brisbane ($1.57) v Gold Coast ($2.40)
Line betting:	Brisbane -8.5 ($1.90) v Gold Coast +8.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds:	Brisbane $8; Gold Coast $15

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Brisbane v Gold Coast tips

Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Lions v Suns betting tips: 

Josh Dunkley 25+ possessions

The tough utility is likely to spend a lot of time at the coalface in this game, given the Suns’ strength in contested possession. We think he’s the man who could benefit most from the absence of Neale, in a possessions sense, and the $1.64 for him to gather 25+ possessions is outstanding value. 

Cam Rayner 2+ goals

If the Lions are to win, Cam Rayner needs to lift and hit the scoreboard, given their lack of a key forward to support youngster Logan Morris and the failed Day experiment. Rayner was disappointing against the Cats and he would be embarrassed after his flopping incident. He’s too good not to respond in the right manner. Rayner is paying around the $2 quote to kick two goals.

Brayden Fiorini 20+ Possessions

The in-demand Sun has been in a rich vein of form and will need to play well in this game for the Suns to win, given the depth the Lions have through the midfield, even without Neale. When on-song Fiorini is prolific and is unlikely to get much attention given Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell lurk through the midfield. He is paying $1.87 to get 20+ touches.

Bailey Humphrey 2+ goals

We’ve been close to hitting on Humphrey all season, and we had a nice little pay on him in the Suns’ first final. He’s the Suns answer to Rayner and just quietly he might end up a better player. He is built for finals and paying $1.98 to kick 2+ goals. 

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Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns prediction

The Lions are ripe for the plucking in this contest and the Suns will believe they can knock off their chief rival, but we saw last week in the Adelaide v Collingwood clash, that finals experience counts. While we think the clash is much closer to even money than the odds suggest, we can see the Lions turning this clash into a dour slog, and those Ashcroft boys, who just seem to know how to win, star in a close win. Don’t be surprised if you hear Country Road play a few times as well as they look for a rematch against the team that beat them in the 2023 grand final. Our final Brisbane v Gold Coast prediction? Lions by four points.