Richmond v Brisbane betting tips, prediction & odds; AFL round 18 preview
Welcome to our Richmond v Brisbane tips, prediction and odds analysis ahead of their AFL round 18 clash at the MCG on Friday night.
In what is looming as a vital match, the Lions have ben installed a short $1.47 favourite in betting to win against the ailing Tigers ($2.71). The $2 line at TopSport has been set at 13.5 points.
Brisbane is fourth on the AFL ladder after losing to St Kilda last outing and desperately need a win to remain in the coveted double chance position. They will have to mount their finals charge without star forward Eric Hipwood who suffered a torn ACL against the Saints.
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The Tigers season is in free-fall after losing to lowly Collingwood on Sunday, with injuries to key players such as Dion Prestia and Shane Edwards decimating their midfield and exposing their dubious depth. Sitting in 12th position, Richmond are only a win behind eighth-placed West Coast but must snap out of their form slump here which has seen them lose four successive games.
Richmond has also averted a ruck crisis, with premiership ruckman Toby Nankervis returning to play against the Lions, while Mabior Chol has been named but appears to be only 50-50 after spending time off with injury against the Magpies. Kane Lambert and former Saint Matthew Parker have also come into the team. Last week’s medi-sub Jack Ross, Patrick Naish, Riley Collier-Dawkins and Thomson Dow have been dropped.
Brisbane resisted the urge to make wholesale changes ahead of this match, with Jarrod Berry given another week to recover from a slight calf twinge. The Lions have included Jaxon Prior, Ryan Lester and Tom Fullarton, with Callum Ah Chee, Rhys Mathieson, Marcus Adams and Hipwood the quarter to go out of the team.
Continue reading for our free Richmond Tigers v Brisbane Lions betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 18 clash from 7:50pm, Friday, July 16.
|Start:||7:50pm AEST, July 16|
|Head-to-head odds:||Richmond ($2.71) v Brisbane ($1.47)|
|Line betting:||Brisbane -13.5 ($1.90) v Richmond +13.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Brisbane $5.50; Richmond $15|
Richmond v Brisbane tips
Our AFL betting expert has examined the odds and found some value Richmond v Brisbane tips:
Jason Castagna to kick 2+ goals
It’s expected to be very wet in Melbourne on Friday night, which has us looking a little deeper into the teams to find the goal kickers, with big men not favoured by the conditions. Richmond desperately needs their small forwards to pressure and begin to kick goals again and Castagna has never been so important following the deterioration of Daniel Rioli. The Lions don’t look to have a logical match-up and the $3.50 on offer for Castagna to kick 2+ goals is good enough for us.
Lachie Neale to have 30+ possessions
We have seen Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale get into a frame of mind where he just keeps getting the ball and we’ve seen signs he is getting back to his best in recent weeks. This week he will face a Tigers team that was pulverised around the ball by the Magpies, with Taylor Adams, a player Neale would admire, dominating. We can’t see the Tigers tagging, so we think the $1.91 on offer at Australian betting sites for Neale to get 30 possessions is very good value.
Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions prediction 16/7
For the first time in a long time our cash cow Richmond is struggling and we’re still battling to take them off our certainties’ list each week. The Tigers look old, lack leg speed through the midfield and have players like Daniel Rioli who presently struggle to contribute at AFL level. The Lions also have their issues with the the Hipwood injury further harming their firepower, after the early season blow to Cam Rayner. Can recruit Joe Daniher shine brighter without Hipwood? We’re looking forward to this clash, which we mark a lot closer to 50-50 than the bookmakers and for this reason we’re going to give the Tigers one more chance. Our final Richmond v Brisbane prediction? Tigers by six points.
Subscription TV: Foxtel; Streaming/IPTV: Kayo; Free-to-air: Channel 7
All of the best Australian bookmakers will offer markets on the AFL.
The game starts at 7:50pm AEST, Friday, July 16, 2021.
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