AFL Finals: Adelaide v Collingwood betting tips & prediction

Welcome to our Adelaide v Collingwood betting tips and prediction for their AFL qualifying final at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night.

The Crows are $1.60 favourite to defeat the Magpies ($2.30), with the line set at 8.5 points, which is no surprise given the home team finished two wins and percentage ahead of the Melbourne club, but they will be without their star playmaker Izak Rankine because of suspension.

Adelaide stitched up the minor premiership with a hard-fought victory over North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on August 23, with Riley Thilthorpe kicking three goals to get them out of trouble against the gallant Roos.

Collingwood sealed their spot in the top four with a come-from-behind victory over Melbourne, which was inspired by star veteran Scott Pendlebury, comeback midfielder Jordan de Goey and their greater scoring options.

The latest time these clubs played was just several weeks ago, with the Crows holding on to win by three points — their first victory over the Magpies in Adelaide for some time, which should fill them with confidence.

But this game was marred by Rankine’s actions, for which he was suspended for four weeks for a homophobic slur, with this massive penalty being backed by some and ridiculed by many, although ultimately the Crows copped it on the chin.

Adelaide is expected to recall Max Michalanney (hamstring) and forward Luke Pedlar (hamstring), with Billy Dowling, Sid Draper and Hugh Bond the players under pressure to retain their places.

Collingwood is not expected to make many changes to the team that defeated Melbourne, with defender Jeremy Howe (groin) set to be replaced with Will Parker, with the potential for a re-jig against the exceptionally tall Crows forward line.

The Magpies have also been considering recalling big man Mason Cox for the out-of-form Dan McStay, with the US-born big man having a strong record in finals, despite playing limited senior matches this year. It would also give the Magpies greater cover for Darcy Cameron in the ruck, after he was beaten by Riley O’Brien last time they played.

Continue reading for our free Adelaide v Collingwood betting tips for their AFL qualifying final.

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Crows v Magpies AFL finals Week 1 details and odds

Start:	7.40pm AEST, September 4, 2025
Venue:	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Head-to-head odds:	Crows ($1.60) v Magpies ($2.35)
Line betting:	Crows -8.5 ($1.90) v Magpies +8.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds:	Adelaide $4.50; Collingwood $7

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Adelaide v Collingwood betting tips

Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Adelaide v Collingwood betting tips.

Nick Daicos 30+ possessions

Pies fans have worried all year their star man Daicos has been carrying an injury, but when he’s fresh and firing there is little doubt he is the best player in the game. After a week off, and an All Australian team snub, which saw him named on the bench, we can see the younger Daicos firing against the Crows. Expect him to get heavily shadowed by James Peatling or Rory Laird, but ultimately he’s just too good not to get plenty of the ball. Reports have indicated Daicos received a knock at training on Tuesday, but watching the footage, and the fact he returned to the track, suggests he is fine.

Riley Thilthorpe 3+ goals

The Crows’ powerful forward is the best contested mark in the game, and can be the man to exploit the Magpies’ lack of aerial presence down back. He’s likely to cop Billy Frampton most of the night, and while he’s not terrible the Crow would be expected to shade him. Thilthorpe is paying $2.30 to kick 3+ goals.

Possessions betting tips

Adelaide is a team that doesn’t rely on sheer volume of ball to score, which was evident last time these two teams played, with the Magpies dominating inside 50s and the Crows winning. While reaching 25 possessions is a stretch most weeks for Crows players, pick the right one and it can be lucrative. Captain Jordan Dawson is always around the mark, while Sam Berry and Rory Laird are also contenders. You can put all three of these guys in your same-game multis for 20+ possessions with confidence.

Collingwood has plenty of players capable of jagging 25+ possessions, with the Daicos brothers usually leading the charge. We like Ned Long for 20+ possessions at $2, with the unfashionable midfielder seemingly built for the finals cauldron. Scott Pendlebury took some kickouts in recent weeks, which has inflated stat counts, and this could happen again, with Josh Daicos and Dan Houston playing further up the field. We’re likely to take Houston at $1.87 for 20+ possessions.

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Adelaide v Collingwood prediction

Adelaide has emerged as the team to beat in the last month of the AFL season, but it remains to be seen whether they will have enough depth and star power through the midfield without Rankine and Josh Rachele. The Magpies will take heart from their dominant, but ultimately fruitless performance in Adelaide last time, and will know they need to find a way to score more. For this reason, it’s hard to overlook the Crows, with Thilthorpe, Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty set to really challenge Darcy Moore and friends down back. Our final Adelaide v Collingwood prediction? Crows by two points.