Geelong v Western Bulldogs betting tips and prediction

Welcome to our Geelong v Western Bulldogs betting tips and prediction for their AFL round 11 clash at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night.

The Cats ($1.86) are narrow favourite with betting sites to defeat the Bulldogs ($1.98) in what is shaping as a fiery contest, with Bailey Smith set to play against his old team for the first time.

Ladbrokes has set the line at 1.5 points and we won’t be surprised if this Cats v Dogs clash starts with the bookies still around even money.

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Geelong is coming off one of their best performances of the season after smacking Port Adelaide by 76 points on the road. The win however has come at a cost, with veteran Patrick Dangerfield and recruit Jack Bowes both injuring hamstrings.

The Cats will have Tom Stewart, Rhys Stanley and Mitch Knevitt available for selection, while Cam Guthrie and injury plagued recruit Jack Martin will play in the VFL, the latter making his Cats’ debut.

Western Bulldogs will be unable to consider youngster Arty Jones after he suffered a hamstring injury in their 91-point shellacking of Essendon. Midfielder Adam Treloar is some chance of replacing him, but faces a fitness test at some point as he nears a return from a calf injury.

Continue reading for our free Geelong v Western Bulldogs tips and prediction.

Cats vs Bulldogs odds

Start:	7.30pm AEST, May 21
Venue:	GMHBA Geelong, Geelong
Head-to-head odds:	Geelong ($1.86) v Western Bulldogs ($1.98)
Line betting:	Geelong -1.5 ($1.88) v Bulldogs +1.5 ($1.88)
Premiership odds:	Geelong $7.50; Bulldogs $8

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Geelong v Western Bulldogs tips

Our AFL betting expert has examined the game and found some value Geelong v Bulldogs tips:

Under 177.5 total match points

We can see this clash having extraordinary heat early on, and the scores being two goals to one at quarter, which means the total match points being at 177.5 looks a tad high. Paying $1.88, taking the unders in the over/under market looks to be safe.

Riley West to kick 2+ goals

West, the son of Bulldogs legend Scott, has emerged as one of the premier small forwards in the game with his goal nous and toughness, in the absence of a bevy of gun forwards, has been a major reason his team is on the cusp of the top four. He is short at $1.75 to kick 2+ goals, but is a much more consistent choice to kick Bulldogs’ goals than Aaron Naughton.

Max Holmes to get 25+ touches

While Smith has been the dominant ball-winner for the Cats this year, Holmes is arguably their best midfielder, and with all the attention on his new team-mate we think he can slip under the radar. With Smith training behind closed doors this week, Holmes needs to fire, especially without Dangerfield to bail them out when things go wrong. Holmes has only reached 25 possessions once in the last month, which is why his odds have ballooned out to $2.35 with Playup (PlayUp review) to reach the mark this week.

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Geelong v Western Bulldogs prediction 22/5

Geelong deserves their narrow favouritism courtesy of the home ground advantage, but this promises to be a close and riveting clash, the perfect way to start AFL round 11 action. The Cats are clearly going to miss captain Dangerfield, with his importance highlighted by his match-winning role against flag favourite Collingwood recently. They also face the prospect of their star ball-winner Smith copping the heat from his old team, who he famously sledged about their small crowds at second-home Ballarat, which means he’s going to cop a physical battering. This is not a clash to be betting on the outcome, with our priorities lying with the player and goal-kicker markets in this one. But if we’re forced to make a Geelong v Bulldogs prediction? Dogs by seven points.