GWS v Richmond betting tips, prediction and odds analysis, AFL rd 22 preview 2021

Giants vs Tigers betting tips for AFL rd 22, 2021

Welcome to our GWS v Richmond tips, prediction and odds analysis ahead of their important AFL round 22 clash at Marvel Stadium on Friday night. 

The clash was initially slated to be played in Western Sydney, but the Covid-19 outbreak there means it has been switched to Melbourne, where it will be played under the roof of Docklands. 

This fixture resolution has seen Richmond ($1.60) installed a heavy favourite to defeat GWS ($2.34), despite their mixed form in recent times and injuries to key players such as Dustin Martin. The $1.90 line with TopSport has been set at 6.5.  

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The Giants v Tigers clash has huge ramification for the finals race, with both teams fighting for the seventh and eighth rungs on the AFL ladder. The eighth-placed Giants have a two-point break on the Tigers, but the reigning premier has a superior percentage and will leapfrog them with a win, a feat they achieved by four points in round nine this season at the same venue. 

The Giants will have to do it without stand-in skipper Toby Greene after he was rubbed out in contentious circumstances for a high hit on Geelong gun Patrick Dangerfield. The club challenged the decision but had it thrown out at the AFL tribunal on Thursday night.

GWS, which breathed new life into its season with an upset of top four-bound Geelong, has been boosted by the return of their best midfielder Josh Kelly and born-again forward Jesse Hogan, who was rested for the Cats game. The Giants have also included Adam Kennedy, Daniel Lloyd, Josh Kelly and Shane Mumford, with Greene out suspended and Brent Daniels, Cal Brown and Matt Buntine out injured. Jake Riccardi, Kieren Briggs and Nick Shipley have been dropped. 

Richmond has few injuries to worry about, but Brownlow Medal winner Martin being out hurts and exposes their somewhat thin midfield. They may be boosted by the inclusion of athletic swingman Kamdyn McIntosh. 

Continue reading for our free GWS v Richmond betting tips and winner prediction for their round 22 clash at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, on Friday August 13, 2021. 

Start:7:50pm AEST, August 13
Venue:Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Head-to-head odds:GWS ($2.25) v Richmond ($1.65)
Line betting:GWS +6.5 ($1.90) v Richmond -6.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds: Richmond $26; GWS $41

GWS v Richmond tips

Our AFL betting expert has examined the odds and found some value GWS v Richmond tips:

Jack Graham to have 30 possessions

Graham has become an important part of the Tigers’ midfield in recent times, with a career-high 36 possessions last outing. The Giants midfield is their strength right now and we expect them to back someone like Josh Kelly or Stephen Coniglio to go toe-to-toe. Graham is at massive odds, at $8 with TopSport, to gather 30 touches in possessions betting which is good enough for us. 

Tom Lynch to kick 3+ goals

Lynch has cruelled us this season, with the Tigers’ forward a shadow of the player he was in last year’s flag. He even went goalless last round in a 33-point win over the current wooden spooners, although he could have jagged a couple. Confidence looks to have deserted the key tall and he again faces a stiff ask, with Sam Taylor and maybe Phil Davis his potential opponents. We’ll back Lynch in one last time at decent odds of $2.63 with Unibet Australia.

 

Lachie Whitfield to have 30 touches

Whitfield was magnificent in the upset win over Geelong and he consistently records over 30 possessions, which he should do against a Tigers team that rarely locks down individual players. He is paying $1.40 to reach 30 with Neds.

GWS Giants v Richmond Tigers predictions

Richmond just don’t look like the menacing team they have in the past, which is no surprise given how many of their absolute stars are on the wrong side of 30. It says a lot that we’re even considering GWS when they have 19 players either in doubt or out of this contest. While some of these guys will play against Richmond, they have spent another covid-enforced week on the road and we prefer the Melbourne team for this reason. Strongly consider sticking to the player and exotic markets in this one, with Richmond a little too short for our tastes. Our final GWS v Richmond prediction? Tigers by six points. 

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