Hawthorn v Adelaide betting tips and winner prediction 

Welcome to our Hawthorn v Adelaide betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 14 clash at the University of Tasmania, Launceston, on Friday night. 

The sixth-placed Hawks are narrow favourites at $1.90, but they must wish they were playing in Melbourne against the third-placed Crows ($1.94). The Hawks v Crows line has been set at 0.5 at Australian betting sites.

Hawthorn is coming off a 22-point win against the Western Bulldogs, which was a match they went into as underdogs. Forwards Mabior Chol and Jack Ginnivan (who won us a nice sum) both fired, while Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore steered the midfeld. 

The Hawks are likely to regain young forward Nick Watson after illness kept him out of their win over the Bulldogs, while Jack Scrimshaw is also slated to return. James Worpel is touch and go after suffering a corked quad against the Bulldogs. 

Adelaide has lost recruit James Peatling until round 16 after his suspension, which could see top draft pick Sid Draper recalled and slotted into their midfield. Nick Murray is also available after overcoming a knee injury suffered in round 7. 

The Crows are coming off arguably their best win of the season after defeating the Brisbane Lions, in what was an electric contest. The Crows multi-pronged forward line is feared by opposition teams and they will need them to contribute, despite playing in Tassie. 

Captain and Brownlow Medal fancy Jordan Dawson was magnificent for the Crows, while the tough Ben Keays was important up forward, a role we predict he might not replicate this week.

While the weather is looking clear for Friday night, Tassie AFL fixtures are notoriously low-scoring, so it will be a tough encounter for punters. Small wins and possession counts are going to be very important for our Hawks v Crows betting strategy. 

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Hawks v Crows odds

Start:	Friday, 7.40pm AEST, June 13
Venue:	University of Tasmania, Launceston
Head-to-head odds:	Hawks ($1.90) v Crows ($1.94)
Line betting:	Hawks -0.5 ($1.88) v Crows +0.5 ($1.88)
Premiership odds:	Hawthorn $12; Adelaide $9

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Hawthorn v Adelaide tips

Our AFL betting expert has assessed the teams and found some value Hawthorn v Adelaide tips: 

Nick Watson to kick 2+ goals

Watson tends to play deeper than Ginnivan and the cold and tricky conditions in Tasmania will suit the “Wizard”. We’re confident he will play after “illness” and he looms as a key component for the Hawks. He is also paying $2.20 to kick 2+ or $4.80 to kick 3+ which are great odds for such a talent. 

Izak Rankine to kick 2+ goals

Rankine is paying $3.20 to kick 2+ goals, which has become less common since he switched into the midfield. We think the Crows will end up with the physical Keays in the guts and the classy Rankine up forward this week. We’ll take the juicy odds on offer to anchor one of our multis.

Under 155.5 total match points

Take the unders in the over/under betting market. We can see this clash descending into a dour, physical contest, with whichever teams smalls get on top winning. Keep an eye on over/under mark, because if it gets much lower we won’t hesitate to pull out. 

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Hawthorn v Adelaide prediction

Hawthorn play well in Tasmania but Adelaide has more talent, which leaves us with a dilemma on who will win this clash. Both teams are coming off important wins, which keep their top four hopes alive and backing up here would be a huge boost to their chances. While we will be going the tri-bet winner option (either team to win 1-24 points), if we’re forced to pick here, we will run with the Crows because of their extra firepower, despite the Hawks making us look silly last week. Our final Hawthorn v Adelaide prediction? Crows by eight points.