Hawthorn v Carlton betting tips and prediction

Hawthorn has an opportunity to issue the killer blow to Carlton’s finals chances in their AFL round 20 clash at the MCG on Thursday night. 

The Hawks ($1.18) are an un-backable favourite to account for Carlton ($4.80) and with their best player Will Day expected to return from a longterm injury, they have the bookmakers’ on their side. 

Hawthorn is fresh off a 38-point victory over Port Adelaide, with Dylan Moore (32 touches) surprising with a prolific game. 

Jarman Impey and Jack Guston both booted three goals for the Hawks, but it was the return of their spearhead Mitch Lewis, who was subbed off late, that will particularly please coach Sam Mitchell. While Lewis’s stats weren’t outstanding, the way he presented and freed up the likes of Calshear Dear and Gunston was instrumental in tough conditions. 

Carlton is finally back on the winners’ list after accounting for Melbourne by eight points on Saturday night. 

The Blues, as is often the case, were propped up Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow (three goals), but they will also be buoyed by the four goal haul to the latest AFL Rising Star nominee Ashton Moir. 

The Blues have included star forward Harry McKay and Blake Acres, with injured pair Francis Evans and Flynn Young going out of the team.

Hawthorn has included Will Day for his first game since round 3 and with their relatively clean bill of health they have almost a full list to choose from. Finn Maginness, who suffered a nasty injury in their win over the Power.

Hawthorn v Carlton odds

Start:	7.30pm AEST, July 24
Venue:	MCG, Melbourne
Head-to-head odds:	Hawthorn ($1.22) v Carlton ($4.35)
Line betting:	Hawthorn -25.5 ($1.90) v Carlton +25.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds:	Carlton N/A; Hawthorn $13

Hawthorn v Carlton tips

Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Hawthorn v Carlton tips: 

Patrick Cripps 25+ possessions

While Cripps would probably admits 2025 has not been his best season, the Brownlow Medalist has gone on hot-streaks in the past, and we’ve got a feeling he will fire again against the Hawks. The Hawks are likely to back their midfield in, with most having outstanding defensive qualities, but Cripps ball winning abilities at their best are better than anyone in brown and gold. He is paying $1.83 to gather 25+ possessions. 

Nick Watson 2+ goals

Watson is the exact type of forward that troubles the Blues – smart, creative and with an explosive turn of foot. We watched Kysiah Picket put them to the sword with five goals last week and we’re just not sure who will take Watson and Ginnivan this week. Keep an eye on the teams, but we’re confident Watson will bob up with 2+ goals at $2.07. 

Josh Ward/Jai Newcombe/Jarman Impey 20+ possessions

Hawthorn is an exceptionally tough team when it comes to possessions betting. One week you have Newcombe with 30, or Ginnivan, or Dylan Moore or one of about six other players. We’ll settle with a few of their most reliable to gather 20+ possessions.

Hawthorn v Carlton prediction

While we would love to give Blues fans some hope here, the Hawks are hard to play against and simply have a more even spread across the park. The Blues will come out swinging, as they attempt to honour club legend Sam Docherty, who announced his retirement during the week, but the Hawks’ greater efficiency and ability to hit targets inside their forward 50 should get them home. While a fighting loss is on the cards, an upset would surprise. Our final Hawthorn v Carlton tips: Hawks by 19 points.