Hawthorn v Collingwood betting tips and prediction

Welcome to our Hawthorn v Collingwood betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 22 clash at the MCG on Thursday night. 

The Hawks are a $2.27 outsider to defeat the Magpies ($1.64) despite the former flag favourites lacklustre form, after suffering a major blow in their last round loss to Adelaide. 

The Hawks had been backed into $12 to win the AFL premiership, but have eased significantly following Will Day re-injuring the navicular bone in his foot, with Neds now having them at $26. 

Neds has set the Hawks v Magpies line at 6.5 points, which looks about right in a clash that is looming as a tough slog. 

Hawthorn was gallant in their loss the Crows after jumping them early, but ultimately were beaten up around the contest and had no answers to their opponent’s key forwards. 

The Hawks have stuck to their guns after playing four tall forwards against the Crows, with Calsher Dear, who had been in great form, subbed out soon after half-time. But they will try it again against the Magpies with Changkuoth Jiath and Luke Bruest, who will play just his sixth game of the season, coming in for Harry Morrison and Day. 

The Magpies have also swung the changes after their loss to Brisbane which saw them give up top position, with important defenders Jeremy Howe and Billy Frampton both earning a recall after injury concerns. 

The Magpie shave also included Brownlow Medallist Tom Mitchell, with Charlie Dean, Bobby Hill and Oleg Markov all going out of the line-up. Star forward Hill has illness and is expected back the following week. 

Continue reading for our free Hawthorn v Collingwood tips and winner prediction.  

Hawthorn v Collingwood odds and match info

Start:	7.30pm AEST, August 7, 2025
Venue:	MCG, Melbourne
Head-to-head odds:	Magpies ($2.27) v Hawks ($1.64)
Line betting:	Magpies -6.5 ($1.90) v Hawks +6.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds:	Collingwood $10 ; Hawthorn $26

Hawthorn v Collingwood betting tips

Our AFL betting expert has cast his eye over the odds and found some value Hawthorn v Collingwood tips:

Karl Amon 20+ possessions

Amon has been incredibly consistent for the Hawks and from a punters perspective this is gold. We cannot remember the last time the power runner didn’t hit when we included him our multis. He is paying $1.28 to gather 20 possessions or $2.10 to reach 25. 

Tom Mitchell 25+ touches

Mitchell will be given a couple of matches to prove he is the better option in the Magpies midfield than Ned Long, and he can definitely still find the ball. Mitchell is paying a juicy $1.85 to gather 25+ possessions. Keep a close eye on team selection, particularly who is sub and if it’s Long, have no hesitation firing at Mitchell. 

Calsher Dear 2+ goals

The Hawks athletic forward does some freakish things on the footy field. The Magpies also don’t have a logical match-up for this type, particularly with Moore below his best, and if Howe is not passed fit to play. He is paying $2.35 to kick 2+ goals or $5.50 to kick 3+ goals. 

Hawthorn v Collingwood prediction

This clash could not be much more important, with Hawthorn’s spot in the top eight now under a serious cloud, with the Western Bulldogs storming home. For the Magpies, their hold on a top four position is slipping and this looms as a must win contest, with a tough clash against Adelaide and a Melbourne team that will be hellbent on impressing a new coach. We’ve been burnt twice by the Magpies in recent weeks, but this line-up looks to be the most settled it has been in weeks, with the inclusion of some extra height down back. Our final Hawthorn v Collingwood prediction? Magpies by eight points.