NRL finals 2025, week 1: Betting tips & winner prediction

NRL finals week one have thrown up some intriguing match-ups. We have examined the teams and recent form to give you a leg-up if you are looking to make a profit betting on the rugby league this weekend.

We’ll give you our thoughts and free betting selections on all four games, and late teams news that might help sway what we expect to be thrilling contests contests over the next three days.

MORE: NRL BETTING TIPS

The Melbourne Storm have been usurped at last as the favourites to win the title, partly because of the sizzling form all season by the Canberra Raiders but mainly because the Storm are limping rather than charging into the finals.

Overall, it shapes as one of the most even finals series of recent years, with a big watch on Penrith, who are chasing an incredible fifth consecutive NRL title, though this time they are forced to attempt it from outside the top four.

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Teams news for week one of the NRL finals

As mentioned the Storm limp into the finals having lost ace halfback Jahrome Hughes (arm), fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion) and giant prop Nelson Asofa-Solomona (suspended), while the Dogs also are not full strength with back-line speedsters Marcelo Montoya (ankle) and Bronson Xerri (concussion).On the plus side for the Storm, they regain captain Harry Grant after suspension.

For the opening game on Saturday, the Warriors regain hooker Wayde Egan (hip) and prop Jackson Ford (suspension) for the elimination final against Penrith. The Panthers regain star winger Brian To’o and back-rower Liam Martin after niggling injuries but hooker Mitch Kenny (hamstring) will miss, with Luke Sommerton in Kenny’s place.

For the second elimination final, the Sharks have dodged a bullet with playmaker Nicho Hynes having a dangerous contact charge downgraded at the tribunal, meaning he is free to take his place against the red-hot Roosters. They are at close to full strength. For their part, the Roosters have the same team that was strong against the Rabbits in the final round.

In the final match on Sunday, the Raiders are rested and ready to rumble with pretty much the line-up that has dominated the comp this season. The Broncos are still missing their regular halves combination, but they do regain centre Gehamat Shibasaki after a club-imposed week off for breaching team standards.

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2nd Qualifying Final: Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)

Start:	7.50pm AEST, Friday, September 12
Venue:	AAMI Park, Melbourne
Head-to-head odds:	Melbourne Storm $1.46 v Canterbury-Bankstown ($2.75)
Line betting:	Melbourne Storm -6.5 ($1.90) v Canterbury-Bankstown +6.5 ($1.90)
Title odds:	Melbourne Storm $4; Canterbury-Bankstown $9

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Storm v Bulldogs prediction 

The Storm are beaten up heading into this but so are their opponents. We’ll back in the Storm’s unmatched system and finals experience to come out on top in a tough encounter. Our final Bulldogs v Sharks prediction? Storm by 2 points.

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2nd Elimination Final: Warriors (6th) vs Panthers (7th)

Start:	4.05pm AEST, Saturday, September 13
Venue:	Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Head-to-head odds:	New Zealand Warriors $3.20 v Penrith ($1.35)
Line betting:	New Zealand Warriors +8.5 ($1.90) v Penrith -8.5 ($1.90)
Series odds:	New Zealand Warriors $56; Penrith $6.50

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Warriors v Penrith

Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Saturday’s game.

Leka Halasima to score a try at $3.75

The rangy Warriors youngster looks a special talent, and we won’t be surprised to see him crash over for a four-pointer. We are sticking with this bet rather than punting on the outcome of the match. This option is around $3.60-$4 with online betting sites.

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Warriors v Penrith prediction 

This match will be played on a dry but chilly day in Auckland, with most expecting the Panthers to roll on through to the next round of the finals relatively easily. They are vastly experienced and have also won nine of their past 10 matches against the Warriors and have not lost a final since 2021! While we thing this will be closer than expected given rabid support for the home team, the Panthers will escape with this in a close one.. Our final Warriors v Panthers prediction? Penrith by 4 points.

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1st Elimination Final: Sharks (5th) vs Roosters (8th)

Start:	7.50pm AEST, Saturday, September 13
Venue:	Shark Park, Sydney
Head-to-head odds:	Cronulla-Sutherland $2.15 v Sydney Roosters ($1.70)
Line betting:	Cronulla-Sutherland +2.5 ($1.90) v Sydney Roosters -2.5 ($1.90)
Series odds:	Cronulla-Sutherland $21; Sydney Roosters $13

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Sharks v Roosters

Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Saturday night’s game.

Sharks to win/match total under 46.5 points

The Sharks have been sold short for much of the season and we think the bookies have it wrong again for this one. At their best they are as good as any side, especially scoring dazzling tries. They will ramp up the defence for this one. This option is around $4 with online betting sites.

Sharks to win the title at $21

We have harped on about this option for a while and we were greatly disappointed that the Sharks did not slip into the top four, denied at the last by the Broncos. If the Sharks get through this one we think they can handle most likely the Broncos in the second week od the finals. The $21 still available with most Aussie bookmakers appears to be great value.

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Sharks v Roosters prediction 

This is a contest between two sides who arrive at the finals in cracking form and at fairly close to full strength. The availability of Hynes is a huge plus for the home side. This will be a brutal contest up front between two powerful packs and they both boast slick back lines. Can’t wait for this one. Our final Sharks v Roosters prediction? Sharks by 10 points.

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1st Qualifying Final: Raiders (1st) vs Broncos (4th)

Start:	4.05pm AEST, Sunday, September 14
Venue:	GIO Stadium, Canberra
Head-to-head odds:	Canberra $1.68 v Brisbane ($2.20)
Line betting:	Canberra -3.5 ($1.90) v Brisbane +3.5 ($1.90)
Series odds:	Canberra $3.75; Brisbane $6

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Raiders v Broncos

Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Sunday’s game.

Raiders -3.5 points/match total over 44.5 points

What’s not to love about the Raiders this season. They have a tough, mobile pack and an outstanding back line who have taken apart almost all rivals this season. With the Raiders faithful cheering them on, we expect something special for this one. This option is about $3.50 with online betting sites.

Kaeo Weekes first try-scorer

This Raiders fullback is an excitement machine. We don’t normally attempt first try-scorer bets but we will go with something small here to add excitement to what already should be an electric opening. You can find at least $14 with most Aussie bookmakers .

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Raiders v Broncos prediction 

What a way to finish the weekend with the league’s high-flying entertainers hosting the underachieving Broncos, who have somehow found themselves with a double chance after a topsy-turvy season. The weather forecast is cold and clear and we think the fresh Raiders, who rested many of their stars in the final round of the regular season, will come out gunning. The Broncos are capable on their day but overall the Raiders have been outstanding this season and we expect them to win this one comfortably. Our final Raiders v Broncos prediction? Canberra by 12 points.