Port Adelaide v Geelong betting tips, prediction and odds; AFL Finals Wk 1 QF Preview

Power v Cats betting tips and prediction; AFL Finals Wk 1 preview 27/8

Welcome to our Port Adelaide v Geelong betting tips, prediction and odds update for their AFL qualifying final at the Adelaide Oval on Friday night. 

The Power have been installed the favourites in the betting for this match, following their second-placed finish on the ladder, but the Cats have fans and will be confident of a successful trip to enemy territory. 

Leading Australian bookmaker TopSport has priced the Power at $1.71, while the Cats odds are currently at $2.15. The $1.90 line has been set at 5.5 which could come into play.

The Power stitched up second spot with a two-point win over the Western Bulldogs on Friday night, a clash which effectively meant their opponent missed the top four. The Power stormed home with a four quarter effort that will have coach Ken Hinkley confident his team is ready to chase a second premiership at the top level.


Geelong was in the box seat to win the minor premiership, but fell in a hole in the second half against the Demons, to gift the top home and away team gong to the Demons. The Cats will be missing several key players, but they showed throughout the season that they have good depth.

Geelong won the only contest between the two clubs this season, with it a 21-point victory in round 13, which turned the tables on the Power after they defeated the Cats in the finals last year.

Port Adelaide suffered a blow in the win over the Bulldogs, with young forward Mitch Georgiades being subbed out with a hamstring injury. The club has indicated he may be fit to play, but we suspect they won’t take any risks, with the double chance in the bank. 

Geelong is going to be missing several key players with Tom Stewart (foot) and Zach Tuohy (hamstring) the biggest concerns. Young forward Gryan Miers and Gary Rohan are both expected to play, despite injury concerns but Mitch Duncan is still at least a fortnight away, which has contributed to the Cats’ drift in the betting at Aussie bookmakers.

Continue reading for our free Port Adelaide v Geelong tip, prediction and odds analysis for their AFL qualifying final on Friday night at the Adelaide Oval. 

Start:7:50pm AEST, August 27
Venue:Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Head-to-head odds:Port Adelaide ($1.71) v Geelong ($2.15)
Line betting:Port Adelaide -5.5 ($1.90) v Geelong +5.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds: Port Adelaide $4.20; Geelong $5

Port Adelaide v Geelong tips

Our AFL betting expert has examined the markets and found some value Port Adelaide v Geelong tips:

Connor Rozee to score 100 AFL Fantasy points

Some Australian bookies have markets that allow you to bet on AFL Fantasy points and we suspect Rozee could prove to be some great value, with Tuohy and Stewart sidelined. The class forward-mid has run into some strong form in the second half of the season and we think he could have a big finals series in him. He’s paying a juicy $4.80 to score 100 AFL fantasy points. 

Port Adelaide to win 1-39 points

Port Adelaide have rattled off six successive wins and are probably the form team in the competition. Their ability to win close games will be important here, but we think they slightly shade the Cats at home. Take the 1-39 if you think the Power will win, because it’s highly unlikely to be a blowout and the $2.15 on offer is a nice leg to anchor your same game multis.

Take the unders in over/under betting

These two teams are exceptionally well set up defensively and the added heat of finals should mean goals are hard to come by. The mark has been set at 154.5 by Unibet Australia which we think is unlikely to be reached, with it paying $1.88. 

Port Adelaide v Geelong prediction

Port Adelaide is in better shape than Geelong, who must win this contest given they are no certainty to return back to Victoria for their second final, because of Covid restrictions. Geelong star Stewart is often the Cats’ barometer and his season-ending injury hurts and leaves them without their best defender, against an outfit with a bevy of talented mid-sized players. For this reason we think the Power will get home in a close one. Our final Port Adelaide v Geelong prediction? Power by five points. 


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