UK gambling tax changes set to supercharge illegal operators
The UK Government’s newly proposed betting and gaming tax regime is unlikely to deliver the promised revenue and could accelerate the shift of consumers to unregulated gambling markets, according to the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC).
Forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reveal that the tax changes will reduce the expected revenue yield by nearly one-third. By 2029-30, the Government stands to lose approximately £500 million as consumers move away from UK betting platforms towards illegal operators.
The changes to taxation of gambling operators in the UK has drawn swift backlash from the industry, with Evoke, the owner of William Hill (William Hill review), already contemplating the sale of their flagship brick and mortar and online brand.
“The Government’s own figures show these tax plans will cause significant damage. Industry analysis based on modelling from EY finds that nearly 17,000 high-tech jobs will be lost across online betting and gaming, with over £6 billion in stakes diverted to the black market – a 140% increase in its size,” Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council Grainne Hurst said.
“These proposals also threaten shop closures, further job losses and a less competitive online market, meaning lower, not higher, long-term tax revenues. They also push more customers to the black market, where there are no protections, no taxes and no safeguards.”
The OBR also estimates that around 90% of the new duty burden will be passed on to consumers through higher costs and lower payouts. The result, it says, will be a distorted market where legal products become less attractive, pushing more players toward the black market — where there are no consumer protections, tax payments, or responsible gambling measures.
Despite these projections, the Government maintains that the changes will generate £1.1 billion. However, this figure is now under intense scrutiny from the BGC, industry stakeholders, and independent analysts, including EY.
Analysis based on EY modelling suggests the changes could lead to the loss of nearly 17,000 jobs in the high-tech online betting and gaming sector. It also forecasts over £6 billion in wagers moving to the unregulated market, more than doubling its current size.
In addition to potential job losses and shop closures, critics argue the reforms will weaken the competitiveness of the UK’s regulated digital gambling industry, which currently supports over 109,000 jobs and contributes £6.8 billion to the economy, including £4 billion in taxes that fund racing, sports, and tourism.
The BGC is urging HM Treasury to engage with the sector and reconsider the proposed tax adjustments to prevent long-term harm to a vital UK industry.
