Team profile
World Cup Group D betting preview & free tips
Co-hosts USA are favourites to win Group D at the FIFA World Cup, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side priced at 2.10 to finish top of a section also featuring Australia, Paraguay and Türkiye.
The Americans are expected to qualify for the Round of 32 with international betting sites, but Group D is one of the more balanced sections at the 2026 World Cup.
Türkiye have the attacking quality to win the group, Paraguay are awkward and disciplined, while Australia have tournament experience and tenacious energy to make life difficult for everyone.
MORE: World Cup 2026
Türkiye are the second favourites to top Group D at 3.20 and may have the best attacking trio in the section. Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Calhanoglu give Vincenzo Montella’s side real class, and their return to the World Cup after 24 years should bring plenty of emotion.
Paraguay, priced at 4.33 to win the group, look dangerous because of their defensive structure and CONMEBOL hardness. Gustavo Alfaro’s side are unlikely to blow teams away, but they are built to grind out results and could easily qualify if they handle the key games well.
Australia are outsiders at 10.00 to win Group D, but the Socceroos are not a team to dismiss. Tony Popovic has built a compact side with strong centre-backs, experienced leaders and a rising attacking weapon in Nestory Irankunda.
Lets take a deep dive into each Group D team’s prospects, including their captains, coaches, past World Cup results, predicted lineups and much more.
Group D Squads
🇺🇸 USA
- Manager: Mauricio Pochettino
- Captain: Christian Pulisic
- Group D winner odds: 2.10
- Qualify Group D odds: 1.12
The USA are favourites to win Group D and will carry enormous expectation as one of the three host nations. Pochettino has enough quality to win the section, with Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Malik Tillman and Timothy Weah giving the Americans genuine depth. The concern is whether the team is settled enough tactically, particularly at the back, where recent performances have raised questions. Home advantage in Los Angeles and Seattle is a major factor, but the USA still need to prove they can handle the pressure of being favourites. The Americans have an experienced roster, with over half the team playing in Qatar in 2022, but surprisingly they have left out midfielder Tanner Tessmann, who is a prominent player for Lyon in Ligue 1. Can the US handle the discipline required to move out of the group stage? we’re not entirely convinced, but will be keeping a close eye on their friendly warm-up matches against Senegal and Germany in the coming weeks.
- Confederation: Concacaf
- Best World Cup: Third place (1930)
- World Cup qualifications: 12 (1930, 1934, 1950, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2022, 2026)
- Overall World Cup record: P37 W9 D8 L20 F40 A66
- How they qualified: USA qualified automatically as co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup alongside Canada and Mexico.
- Predicted lineup: Freese; Richards, M Robinson, Ream; Weah, McKennie, Adams, A Robinson; Tillman, Balogun, Pulisic.
- Squad: Goalkeepers: Matt Freese, Matt Turner, Chris Brady
Center backs: Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson
Fullbacks: Antonee Robinson, Sergiño Dest, Alex Freeman, Joe Scally, Max Arfsten
Central midfielders: Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Cristian Roldan, Sebastian Berhalter
Attacking midfielders/wingers: Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Malik Tillman, Gio Reyna, Brenden Aaronson, Alejandro Zendejas
Strikers : Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright
🇹🇷 Türkiye
- Manager: Vincenzo Montella
- Captain: Hakan Calhanoglu
- Group D winner odds: 3.20
- Qualify Group D odds: 1.22
Türkiye are the main danger to the USA and may be the most exciting team in Group D. They are back at the World Cup for the first time since finishing third in 2002, and Montella has a gifted attacking group to work with. Arda Guler is the creative centrepiece, Kenan Yildiz gives them cutting edge from the left and Calhanoglu controls the rhythm from midfield. If Türkiye keep their defensive shape, they are good enough to win this group. The emotional weight and lack of World Cup experience after returning from a 24 year absence is the only real concern.
- Confederation: UEFA
- Best World Cup: Third place (2002)
- World Cup qualifications: Three (1954, 2002, 2026)
- Overall World Cup record: P10 W5 D1 L4 F20 A17
- How they qualified: Türkiye finished second behind Spain in UEFA qualifying Group E before beating Romania and Kosovo in the play-offs.
- Predicted lineup: Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Yilmaz, Guler, Yildiz; Akturkoglu.
- Squad: Goalkeepers: Altay Bayindir Ersin Destanoglu Mert Gunok Muhammed Sengezer Ugurcan Cakir
Defenders: Abdulkerim Bardakci Ahmetcan Kaplan Caglar Soyuncu Eren Elmali Ferdi Kadioglu Merih Demiral Mert Muldur Mustafa Eskihellac Ozan Kabak Samet Akaydin Yusuf Akcicek Zeki Celik
Midfielders: Atakan Karazor Demir Ege Tiknaz Hakan Calhanoglu Ismail Yuksek Kaan Ayhan Orkun Kokcu Salih Ozcan
Forwards: Aral Simsir Arda Guler Baris Alper Yilmaz Can Uzun Deniz Gul Irfan Can Kahveci Kenan Yildiz Kerem Akturkoglu Oguz Aydin Yunus Akgun Yusuf Sari
🇵🇾 Paraguay
- Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
- Captain: Gustavo Gomez
- Group D winner odds: 4.33
- Qualify Group D odds: 1.40
Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010 and look like a classic tournament problem. Alfaro has built a side around defensive structure, physical pressure and quick transitions, with Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso capable of producing moments in attack. Paraguay scored only 14 goals in CONMEBOL qualifying, but they also conceded just 10, which tells the story of their style. They will not be easy to break down and their final group game against Australia could decide whether they reach the Round of 32. Paraguay started their qualifying campaign slowly but finished full of steam, with wins over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. La Albirroja (The White and Red) have enough class in the form of Antonio Sanabria and Miguel Almiron to cause trouble up front, and the fact they have qualified out of the group stage in four of their last five World Cup appearances gives them credibility.
- Confederation: CONMEBOL
- Best World Cup: Quarter-finals (2010)
- World Cup qualifications: Nine (1930, 1950, 1958, 1986, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2026)
- Overall World Cup record: P27 W7 D10 L10 F30 A38
- How they qualified: Paraguay finished sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying to claim the final automatic South American qualification place.
- Predicted lineup: Fernandez; Caceres, Alderete, G Gomez, Alonso; Bobadilla, Cubas; Enciso, Gomez, Almiron; Sanabria.
- Squad: Goalkeepers: Roberto Fernández, Orlando Gill, Gastón Olveira.
Defenders: Gustavo Velázquez, Omar Alderete, Juan Cáceres, Fabián Balbuena, Júnior Alonso, Alan Benítez, Gustavo Gómez, José Canale, Alexandro Maidana.
Midfielders: Ramón Sosa, Diego Gómez, Miguel Almirón, Maurício Magalhães, Lucas Romero, Damián Bobadilla, Braian Ojeda, Matías Galarza.
Forwards: Antonio Sanabria, Álex Arce, Julio Enciso, Gabriel Ávalos, Gustavo Caballero.
🇦🇺 Australia
- Manager: Tony Popovic
- Captain: Mathew Ryan
- Group D winner odds: 10.00
- Qualify Group D odds: 2.30
Australia are the longshots in Group D, but the Socceroos should not be written off. They reached the Round of 16 in 2022 and have qualified for every World Cup since 2006. Popovic has moved the side towards a 3-4-2-1 shape, with Mathew Ryan in goal, Harry Souttar central to the defence and Jackson Irvine driving the midfield. The excitement comes from Nestory Irankunda, who gives Australia rare pace and unpredictability in the final third. They will probably need to beat Paraguay to qualify, but this team has enough tournament experience to stay alive deep into the group. The Socceroos are set to field a relatively inexperienced team at the World Cup, with names like Daniel Arzani left out, despite having previous experience. A strong showing here could set the Socceroos up for a deeper run in four years time, when the core matures.
- Confederation: AFC
- Best World Cup: Round of 16 (2006, 2022)
- World Cup qualifications: Seven (1974, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, 2026)
- Overall World Cup record: P20 W4 D4 L12 F17 A37
- How they qualified: Australia topped their section in the second round of AFC qualifying before finishing second behind Japan in the third round to qualify directly.
- Predicted lineup: Ryan; Circati, Souttar, Burgess; Italiano, McGree, Irvine, Bos; Boyle, Toure, Irankunda.
- Squad: Patrick Beach, Aziz Behich, Daniel Bennie, Raphael Borges Rodrigues, Brandon Borrello, Jordan Bos, Martin Boyle, Cameron Burgess, Anthony Caceres, Milos Degenek, Cameron Devlin, Mitch Duke, Joe Gauci, Jason Geria, Ajdin Hrustic, Nestory Irankunda, Jacob Italiano, Jackson Irvine, Paul Izzo, Mathew Leckie, Dylan Leonard, Connor Metcalfe, Aiden O’Neill, Alex Robertson, Harry Souttar, Gianni Stensness, Ante Suto, Mohamed Toure and Nishan Velupillay.
Group D teams, match-ups and betting preview
Teams: USA, Türkiye, Paraguay, Australia
🇺🇸 USA v 🇵🇾 Paraguay
(The co-hosts open against the most awkward defensive team in Group D)
This is a dangerous opener for the USA. Paraguay will be happy to slow the match down, defend compactly and force the hosts to be patient in possession. The Americans have the better squad and home advantage in Los Angeles, but this is the type of game that can become frustrating if they do not score early. The US beat Paraguay 2-1 in an international friendly in November of last year, before the World Cup fixture was completed. Fun fact, USA beat Paraguay 3-0 at the 1930 World Cup, when Bert Patenaude scored the first hat-trick in tournament history.
🇦🇺 Australia v 🇹🇷 Türkiye
(A huge first-up test for two teams chasing the Round of 32)
This could set the tone for both campaigns. Türkiye have the higher ceiling through Guler, Yildiz and Calhanoglu, but Australia are organised enough to make this physical and direct. The Socceroos will want to use their wing-backs and set pieces, while Türkiye will look to control the ball and find pockets between Australia’s midfield and back three. The two teams have only played twice, two international friendlies in 2004, which were both won by Turkey. A draw would keep both alive, but Türkiye will see this as a match they should win.
🇹🇷 Türkiye v 🇵🇾 Paraguay
(A clash of Turkish creativity against Paraguayan resistance)
This may be the most tactically interesting match in the group. Türkiye will want Guler and Calhanoglu on the ball, but Paraguay are comfortable without possession and will try to turn the game into a battle of transitions and set pieces. If Türkiye score first, they could open the game up. If Paraguay keep it level into the second half, the pressure could swing back onto Montella’s side. There is not much historical context to this match-up, with a 0-0 draw in 1995 their one clash.
🇺🇸 USA v 🇦🇺 Australia
(The USA will expect three points in Seattle, but Australia will not make it easy)
The USA should have too much speed and technical quality, especially with the crowd behind them in Seattle. They beat Australia 2-0 in an international friendly in Denver last year. Australia will need to stay compact, compete aerially and make the most of any chances through Irankunda, Boyle or set pieces. If the Americans are still searching for rhythm after the opener, this could get nervous. But on pure squad strength, Pochettino’s side should be expected to win, but as we’ve seen with the Socceroos in the past, underestimate them at your own peril.
🇹🇷 Türkiye v 🇺🇸 USA
(Could decide top spot in Group D)
This could be the group decider. The USA will have home advantage in Los Angeles, but Turkey have enough technical quality to cause real problems if the hosts leave space in midfield. Calhanoglu’s control, Guler’s creativity and Yildiz’s direct running make this a dangerous match for the Americans. If both teams have already qualified, rotation may come into play, but first place and a softer Round of 32 path could still be on the line. Turkey beat the USA in a friendly 2-1 last year, with all previous matches between the two nations coming before 2014.
🇵🇾 Paraguay v 🇦🇺 Australia
(A likely knockout-style match for third place and possible qualification)
This could be the match that decides who stays alive as a third-placed qualifier. Australia has a great record against Paraguay, with three wins from five matches; with the South American team drawing the other two. How much can read into this we are not sure, given the last of these matches was in 2010. Paraguay are stronger defensively and more experienced in grinding out tournament-style results, while Australia have enough physicality and structure to make this a genuine contest. The Socceroos may need to chase the game, which could suit Paraguay’s transition threat through Almiron and Enciso. Expect a tight, tense match in San Francisco.
World Cup Group D prediction & best bet
The USA deserve to be favourites in Group D, but they are not bombproof. Home advantage is significant, and the Americans have the deepest squad in the section, but they face a very even group, where one slip up could see them in trouble. They also face two teams with strong records in the World Cup and an Australian team that will not lie down.
Türkiye are our pick to top the group, but they will needGuler, Yildiz and Calhanoglu to click. Paraguay are the danger team because they are built for tight tournament matches, while we think the USA are slightly overrated. Australia are better than their long odds suggest but still look short of the attacking class required to finish above two of the other three teams.
The most logical Group D order is Turkey first, USA second, Paraguay third and Australia fourth. Paraguay could still have a path as one of the best third-placed teams, but the USA and Türkiye look the strongest top-two pairing.
Turkey to top Group D at 3.20
Group D exacta: Turkey 1st, USA 2nd at 6.70 with football betting sites.
