Collingwood v Geelong betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Collingwood v Geelong betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 21 clash at the MCG on Thursday night.
The Cats (1.68) are favourites with Australian betting sites to defeat the Magpies (2.19) and notch up a third successive win over a finals contender.
Collingwood has won six successive games with their most recent a stirring victory on the road against Adelaide, which was again set up by their superstar Nick Daicos.
The Magpies have been rocked by a knee/hamstring injury to their vice-captain Brayden Maynard, who will miss up to a month, while midfield star Jordan De Goey is in doubt with illness.
The Pies may regain small forward Lachie Shultz, while youngster Sam Swadling is in line for a recall following a starring role in the VFL, after being an unlucky omission for the Crows game.
Geelong, who will be missing stars Max Holmes and Jeremy Cameron, are sweating on the availability of Patrick Dangerfield (hip), with the veteran struggling in the second half of their 20-point win over Melbourne.
Cats midfielder Bailey Smith must also be in some doubt, or at the very least in a bad headspace, given his love life unravelled very publicly via social media this week.
Arguably the biggest storyline heading into this clash is Cats tagger Oisin Mullin’s role on Daicos, with this battle set to define this game. The Cats stopper has a strong record against Daicos, but there is little doubt the Pies will have plans in place to break the tag.
Collingwood v Geelong betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Collingwood v Geelong tips:
Nick Daicos 2+ goals
Brownlow Medal fancy Daicos is going to have Mullin shadowing him in this clash which is going to lead to the Pies superstar attempting to exploit him up forward. Daicos is paying 1.75 to kick 2+ goals, which is a logical bet in this clash. While you can almost certainly include Daicos most weeks for possessions, we urge some caution this week, given Mullin is one of the few players to have any success curtailing the younger Daicos.
Tanner Bruhn 25+ possessions
Bruhn was clearly the beneficiary of Holmes’ injury absence and his possessions count shot up to 27 last week. We expect his role to be at the coalface again against the Pies and at 2.05 to reach 25+ again, it offers nice value.
Oliver Henry 2+ goals
The Magpies are going to miss Maynard in this clash and former Pie Henry could be the one that benefits. Henry was going to be rested against Melbourne last round, but ended up playing and starring. Given Cameron’s absence Henry is much more prominent up forward and at 2.05 to kick 2+ this looks to be value.
Collingwood v Geelong prediction
Collingwood has struggled to beat Geelong in recent years with their last victory coming in round 22, 2023, the year they won the premiership. Since then, the Pies have gone close, but Geelong has had too much firepower and an advantage other clubs don’t – Mullin’s ability to nullify Daicos. With doubts over in-form De Goey and Geelong seemingly running into good form, we are struggling to find a path to victory for the Pies. Our final Collingwood v Geelong prediction? Cats by 16 points.
