Melbourne v Brisbane betting tips, prediction and odds analysis, AFL QF preview 28/8
Welcome to our Melbourne v Brisbane betting tips, prediction and odds analysis ahead of their AFL qualifying final at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night.
The Demons secured the minor premiership with a Max Gawn goal after the siren against Geelong last Saturday, in one of the most epic finishes to the home and away season.
The Lions just scraped into the top four themselves, on percentage, with the Bulldogs the team to surprisingly miss the double chance.
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The Demons defeated Brisbane in their only encounter this season, a convincing 22-point victory, although it’s worth noting the the Lions’ form is significantly stronger this time around.
Melbourne is the bookies’ elect at $1.70 to defeat the Lions ($2.15) but the covid-enforced neutral venue has thrown this encounter wide open. The $1.90 line has been set at -5.5, which is not one that will entice us.
The winner of this contest will advance straight through to a preliminary final, while the loser will play the winner of the Western Bulldogs v Essendon elimination final, due to be played on Sunday.
The Demons could recall pacy defender Jayden Hunt after an ankle injury, although they may opt to give him another week, given he was expected to miss a month with the ailment.
Brisbane is almost certain to recall captain Harris Andrews (hamstring) and Mitch Robinson (calf) from minor injuries, with Ryan Lester potentially one of the omissions.
Continue reading for our free Melbourne v Brisbane tips and winner prediction for their elimination final on Saturday, August 28, 2021.
|Start:||7:30pm AEST, August 28|
|Venue:||Adelaide Oval, Adelaide|
|Head-to-head odds:||Melbourne ($1.71) v Brisbane ($2.15)|
|Line betting:||Melbourne -5.5 ($1.90) v Brisbane +5.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Melbourne $3.80; Brisbane $6|
Melbourne v Brisbane tips
Our AFL betting expert has examined the markets and found some value Brisbane v Melbourne tips:
Christian Petracca to score 110 AFL Fantasy Points
Melbourne’s star Christian Petracca is built for finals and we think Fantasy Points betting is a good way to cash in, given he is a gun mid who can kick bags of goals. Expect Petracca to get plenty of attention from the Lions, but the good players rise to the occasion. Petracca is paying $2.20 to score 110 AFL Fantasy points with Neds.com.au.
Lachie Neale to have 30+ touches
Neale might have had a below par season to date, but since returning from his latest injury, he has begun to look like his old self. The Demons are prolific through the midfield themselves and are unlikely to put a hard tag on the Brownlow Medallist. Neale is paying a juicy $2.10 to reach 30 possessions.
Bayley Fritsch to score 3+ goals
Fritsch is probably the Demons’ best forward and he does not need many touches, to kick three goals. The weather forecast is clear for Adelaide on Saturday and Fritsch tends to thrive on a dry deck. We don’t expect it to be high-scoring, but can’t see a Demons’ tall getting off the hook against Harris Andrews and friends.
Melbourne v Brisbane prediction 28/8
If this match was in Melbourne, we would be backing the Demons in to win easily, but the fact it is in Adelaide has given it an air of unpredictability. The Demons deserve their favourites tag, but either team could realistically win it, with both having multiple match-winners. This has us leaning towards sticking to the exotics in this one, or looking deeper into the margin markets, with potentially a stab at the either team to win by 1-24 points betting. Our final Melbourne v Brisbane prediction? Demons by 11 points.
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