State of Origin 2: Queensland v NSW tips & odds, Sunday, June 27, 2021
Welcome to our Queensland v New South Wales match preview, prediction and odds update for the State of Origin II clash at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, on Sunday, June 27.
The big question heading into this second match is how can the Maroons possibly bounce back from the 50-6 mauling they endured in Game One a few weeks back in Townsville.
The answer is they have done it before when the odds have been stacked against them, and also that they are now playing back at the home of Queensland’s greatest Origin triumphs at Suncorp Stadium.
While we expect the red-hot and powerful Blues to seal the series with a win in Game 2, we do not think there will be a repeat of the embarrassing thrashing handed out at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
Queensland have won 37 of the 57 games played at this venue, with the Blues winning 19 and one draw.
For our betting purposes this week, we see little value in the head-to-head betting, with the Blues rated $1.23 favourites against the Maroons at $4.40 and the $1.90 line set at 14.5 points.
We will delve into the prop markets such as try-scorers and also man-of-the-match betting.
Recent winners of State of Origin man-of-the-match awards
A look at the recent winners of the award and their positions give us some insight into the likely winners. The award almost always goes to a player on the winning side, and with NSW so short in betting it is likely that will happen again if the Blues do as expected and win comfortably.
Game 1: Matt Gillett (second row)
Game 2: Cameron Smith (hooker)
Game 3: James Maloney (five-eighth)
Game 1: Andrew Fifita (prop)
Game 2: Josh Jackson (second row)
Game 3: Cameron Smith (hooker)
Game 1: James Tedesco (fullback)
Game 2: Boyd Corner (second row)
Game 3: Billy Slater (fullback)
Game 1: Dane Gagai (centre)
Game 2: Tom Trbojevic (centre)
Game 3: James Tedesco (fullback)
Game 1: Daly Cherry-Evans (halfback)
Game 2: Nathan Cleary (halfback)
Game 3: Cameron Munster (five-eighth)
Game 1: Tom Trbojevic (centre)
Game 2: ??
The list of recent winners shows it is the attacking weapons and playmakers who usually get the nod.
The matches have been more free-scoring, and the weather forecast is OK for Sunday in Brisbane so we expect the winners to come from a group of five players if NSW win as they should: Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai, Latrell Mitchell, James Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic.
If the Maroons are to cause a boilover it would likely be on the back of the likes of halves Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans, with powerful forward David Fifita also capable of breaking open the game.
Read on for our State of Origin man of the match tip.
Queensland v NSW team news for Origin 2
Queensland coach Paul Green has been forced into several changes with fullback AJ Brimson (knee) and hooker Harry Grant (hamstring) ruled out, while flying winger Xavier Coates was a surprise axing.
Forwards Joe Ofahengaue and Jaydn Su’A were also left out, with big bopper Josh Papalii back from a ban, and rising Cowboys star Francis Molo named to make his Origin debut.
Young tyro Reece Walsh has been thrown into the cauldron at fullback, with Valentine Holmes switching from the No.1 the wing. Veteran rake Andrew McCullough has been called in to replace Grant.
NSW could not consider forward Jake Trbojevic (hip pointer), with Angus Crichton coming in to replace him in the only change from the 17 for the first game.
State of Origin Game 2 teams
1 Reece Walsh, 2 Valentine Holmes, 3 Kurt Capewell, 4 Dane Gagai, 5 Kyle Feldt, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Daly Cherry-Evans (c); 8 Christian Welch, 9 Andrew McCullough, 10 Josh Papalii, 11 Felise Kaufusi, 12 Jai Arrow, 13 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. Bench: 14 Ben Hunt, 15 David Fifita, 16 Mo Fotuaika, 17 Frank Molo, 18. Coen Hess, 19. Ronaldo Mulitalo.
1 James Tedesco (c), 2 Brian To’o, 3 Latrell Mitchell, 4 Tom Trbojevic, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Jarome Luai, 7 Nathan Cleary (vc); 8 Daniel Saifiti, 9 Damien Cook, 10 Junior Paulo, 11 Cameron Murray, 12 Tariq Sims, 13 Isaah Yeo. Bench: 14 Jack Wighton, 15 Angus Crichton, 16 Payne Haas, 17 Liam Martin, 18 Apisai Koroisau, 19 Campbell Graham, 20 Dale Finucane.,
Maroons v Blues
Kick-off: 7.50pm local time
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Head to head odds: Queensland $4.40, NSW $1.23
Line: Queensland (+14.5 points) $1.90, NSW (-14.5 points) $1.90
Match total: 46.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
Maroons v Blues free betting tips
Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Sunday night’s game.
Latrell Mitchell man of the match at $12
Nathan Cleary is a clear standout in the race to win this award, but he is at $4.40 and that looks a little skinny, although he does pull the strings on this quality NSW side. We think Mitchell represents great value at $12 with TopSport. He is a devastating ball runner who has the power to break through even the the stiffest defences. With so many stars in the Blues back line they are near impossible to stop. We think it could be Latrell’s turn to inflict maximum pain.
Josh Addo-Carr to score 2+ tries at $3.70
The Fox remarkably missed out altogether in the try-fest in game one, with Trbojevic, To’o and Mitchell scoring seven tries between them. It’s unlikely Addo-Carr will miss out again. He is one of great try-scorers in the NRL and should get his moment in the sun at Suncorp.
Queensland Maroons v NSW Blues prediction 27-6-2021
Queensland have often come up trumps against the odds at this ground. But it’s hard to imagine even with a rabid crowd cheering them on that they can upstage this extremely impressive Blues side. Brad Fittler’s men look a cut above, especially in the back line. The Maroons could ill afford to lose the likes of Harry Grant. We are sure they wil put in a much better defensive performance but that won’t be enough to keep them in this series. Our Maroons v Blues prediction: Blues by 10 points.
Maroons v Blues lowdown
Nine will telecast the game in Australia.
All of the top International betting sites will offer markets on the Origin.
The match kicks off at 7.50pm AEST.
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