State of Origin 3: NSW v Qld tips & odds, Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Welcome to our New South Wales v Queensland match preview, prediction and odds update for the State of Origin III clash at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast, on Wednesday, July 14.

This match has been moved twice, with the latest coming when it was switched from Newcastle’s McDonald Jones Stadium to the Gold Coast because of the Covid-19 outbreak in NSW.

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Origin Game III is a dead rubber, but that is not to say we can’t turn a profit betting on this match, and indeed the move to Queensland has made us more confident the Maroons can spring a surprise, largely on the back of changes to both teams for the third game.

NSW won the first two matches in great style, 50-6 in Townsville and 26-0 in Brisbane, to claim the Origin trophy, but they would love a clean sweep to start paying the Maroons back for their years of dominance.

We were so close to an outstanding outcome from our Game 2 selection of Latrell Mitchell at $12 to be man of the match. Many considered Mitchell should have got the award that eventually went to NSW fullback James Tedesco.

But our followers still did well with our tip for Josh Addo-Carr to score two or more tries, as The Fox duly got among the tries to deliver a handy payday.

Here we will again delve into man of the match betting, and also our overall tip for Game 3.

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Recent winners of State of Origin man-of-the-match awards

A look at the recent winners and their positions give us some insight. The gong nearly always goes to a player on the winning side.

2016
Game 1: Matt Gillett (second row)
Game 2: Cameron Smith (hooker)
Game 3: James Maloney (five-eighth)

2017
Game 1: Andrew Fifita (prop)
Game 2: Josh Jackson (second row)
Game 3: Cameron Smith (hooker)

2018
Game 1: James Tedesco (fullback)
Game 2: Boyd Corner (second row)
Game 3: Billy Slater (fullback)

2019
Game 1: Dane Gagai (centre)
Game 2: Tom Trbojevic (centre)
Game 3: James Tedesco (fullback)

2020
Game 1: Daly Cherry-Evans (halfback)
Game 2: Nathan Cleary (halfback)
Game 3: Cameron Munster (five-eighth)

2021
Game 1: Tom Trbojevic (centre)
Game 2: James Tedesco (fullback)
Game 3: ???

Read on for our State of Origin man of the match tip.

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Queensland v NSW team news for Origin 3

The big news on the Blues side of the equation is of course the fact that they have lost both halves in Nathan Cleary (shoulder) and Jarome Luai (knee).

Parramatta half Mitchell Moses takes the reins at No.7, while Raiders star Jack Wighton was the obvious player to slot in at No.6 after starting on the bench in the opening two games. They are class players but will not have the same telepathic connection that Cleary and Luai share at Penrith.

The Blues will also miss powerhouse prop Daniel Saifiti (ribs), with Dale Finucane coming in as his replacement and taking Cleary’s vice-captain’s role.

The Maroons take on a whole new look with the fleet-footed Kalyn Ponga back at fullback. He is one of the most exciting players in the game and could transform this side.

Also, Kurt Capewell moving back to second row from the centres, where he battled gamely but was often outpaced, is a huge positive. Debutant Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow takes the centre spot and that adds so much in terms of speed if lacking the grunt of a Capewell.

The Maroons lose David Fifita to suspension, with Frank Molo taking his place, while Jai Arrow is out after his brain fade in breaching biosecurity protocols.

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State of Origin Game 3 teams

NSW
1 James Tedesco (c), 2 Brian To’o, 3 Latrell Mitchell, 4 Tom Trbojevic, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Jack Wighton, 7 Mitchell Moses; 8 Dale Finucane, 9 Damien Cook, 10 Junior Paulo, 11 Cameron Murray, 12 Tariq Sims, 13 Isaah Yeo. Bench: 14 Apisai Koroisau, 15 Angus Crichton, 16 Payne Haas, 17 Liam Martin, 19 Nicho Hynes, 20 Clinton Gutherson, 21 Stefano Utoikamanu.

Queensland
1 Kalyn Ponga, 2 Valentine Holmes, 3 Dane Gagai, 4 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5 Xavier Coates, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Daly Cherry-Evans (c); 8 Christian Welch, 9 Ben Hunt, 10 Josh Papalii, 11 Kurt Capewell, 12 Felise Kaufusi, 13 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. Bench: 14 AJ Brimson, 20 Thomas Flegler, 16 Mo Fotuaika, 18 Frank Molo, 19 Kurt Mann, 21 Coen Hess.

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Blues v Maroons

Kick-off: 7.50pm local time
Venue: Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Head to head odds: NSW $1.28, Queensland $3.90
Line: NSW (-11.5 points) $1.90, Queensland (+11.5 points) $1.96
Match total: 46.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90

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Maroons v Blues free betting tips

Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Wednesday night’s game.

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NSW Blues v Queensland Maroons prediction 14-7-2021

It has been a very un-Queensland-like display this year in Origin, even with all three matches played in the Sunshine State. NSW have been a class above, and it has not even been close. However, you take out the brilliance of Blues halves Cleary and Luai and add Ponga to the Maroons and it takes on a different look. Also the loss of Blues powerhouse Daniel Saifiti will hurt the Blues engine room. He was outstanding in the first two games. We still think the Blues will win, but in a proper Origin cliff-hanger this time. Our Blues v Maroons prediction: Blues by 2 points.

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