Spain v Argentina betting tips & prediction
Spain and Argentina will battle for football’s biggest prize when the reigning European champions face the defending FIFA World Cup winners in the 2026 World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday.
Luis de la Fuente’s side have been the benchmark throughout the tournament, conceding just one goal while producing arguably the performance of the World Cup in a dominant 2-0 semi-final victory over pre-tournament favourites France.
Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring from the penalty spot after Lamine Yamal was brought down in the area before Pedro Porro wrapped up the victory with a brilliant finish following an intricate one-two with Dani Olmo.
Argentina’s route to a second successive World Cup final has been far more dramatic. Lionel Scaloni’s side came from behind yet again to defeat England 2-1, with Enzo Fernandez equalising late before Lautaro Martinez headed home Lionel Messi’s cross in injury time.
Spain are priced at around 2.15 to win in 90 minutes, while Argentina are paying approximately 3.85 and the draw is available at 3.00 with leading betting sites. La Roja are also favourites to lift the World Cup after 120 minutes if required.
The final also features two of the tournament’s biggest stars chasing individual history. Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race on eight goals and four assists, narrowly ahead of Kylian Mbappe, while Spain are attempting to complete a record-breaking 38-match unbeaten run.
Spain have reached the final through control, structure and defensive excellence, whereas Argentina have repeatedly found ways to survive under enormous pressure before producing decisive moments late in matches.
It shapes as a fascinating tactical battle between Spain’s possession-based football and Argentina’s relentless competitiveness, with neither side giving much away throughout the knockout stages.
Everything points towards a tense World Cup final between the tournament’s best footballing side and the defending champions who simply refuse to be beaten.
Below we run through the latest Spain and Argentina team news, present our free Spain vs Argentina betting tips and give our World Cup final prediction.
Spain team news
Spain’s biggest concern centres on teenage star Lamine Yamal, who missed training after the semi-final victory over France. The Barcelona winger was spotted with heavy strapping on his left thigh after playing the full 90 minutes and winning the penalty that opened the scoring.
Head coach Luis de la Fuente is expected to provide a late fitness update, although Spain remain hopeful Yamal will recover in time for the final. He has featured in every World Cup match and remains one of La Roja’s most dangerous attacking weapons despite carrying fitness concerns during the tournament.
Pedro Porro should retain his place after his outstanding semi-final display, while Rodri, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo continue to form arguably the strongest midfield unit at the tournament. Mikel Oyarzabal is also expected to lead the line after scoring his fifth goal of the World Cup against France.
Spain’s expected lineup: Simon; Porro, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabian Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Williams; Oyarzabal.
Argentina team news
Argentina head into the final with few injury concerns after both Cristian Romero and Leandro Paredes recovered from minor muscular complaints suffered during the knockout rounds. Romero completed the full semi-final against England, while Paredes is also expected to be available after being substituted during the second half.
Lionel Messi once again inspired Argentina’s comeback against England, providing assists for both goals to move to eight goals and four assists for the tournament. Lautaro Martinez’s dramatic winner has strengthened his claims for a starting berth alongside Messi in the final.
Enzo Fernandez should retain his place after scoring the equaliser against England, while Rodrigo De Paul and Alexis Mac Allister will again be tasked with disrupting Spain’s rhythm through the middle of the park.
Argentina’s expected lineup: Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Messi, Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez.
Spain vs Argentina odds
Match Result
- Spain2.15
- Draw3.00
- Argentina3.85
To Lift The Trophy
- Spain1.56
- Argentina2.54
Total Goals 3.5
- Over 3.5 Goals3.60
- Under 3.5 Goals1.28
Both Teams To Score
- Yes1.95
- No1.80
Spain vs Argentina betting tips
WGL’s football betting expert has analysed the World Cup final and found two betting angles worth considering.
Under 3.5 total goals
World Cup finals are rarely open affairs, with both teams typically placing a greater emphasis on defensive structure than attacking freedom. Spain have conceded just once throughout the tournament, while Argentina have enough experience and quality to keep the contest under control. Under 3.5 goals looks the strongest betting option, allowing room for a 2-1 scoreline while covering the type of tactical battle expected in a final.
Both teams to score
Spain should create chances through their relentless possession game, but Argentina have repeatedly shown throughout this tournament that they can punish teams in transition and from set pieces. With Lionel Messi pulling the strings and Lautaro Martinez in excellent form, backing both teams to score appeals in what should be a closely fought final.
Mikel Oyarzaba anytime goal-scorer
Oyarzabal has a knack for delivering on the biggest stage and looks an excellent anytime goalscorer option in the World Cup final. The Spain forward times his runs superbly, often drifting into dangerous pockets from the left or arriving centrally as a second striker when defenders are occupied by Yamal and Nico Williams. He has already enjoyed an outstanding tournament and comes into the final full of confidence after scoring against France in the semi-final. He is paying 2.40 to be an anytime goalscorer in this match.
Spain vs Argentina prediction
Argentina have repeatedly found ways to escape difficult situations throughout the knockout stages and can never be underestimated while Messi is on the pitch. However, Spain have been comfortably the most complete side at the tournament, controlling matches through their outstanding midfield and conceding only one goal in seven outings. Their extra day’s rest, defensive discipline and ability to dominate possession give La Roja a slight edge in what should be a tight, tactical contest. We expect Argentina to push Spain all the way, but ultimately we’re leaning towards the European champions lifting the World Cup. But would anyone be surprised if Messi an Argentina do it again?
Our final Spain vs Argentina prediction: Spain win 2-1.
