Fremantle v Hawthorn betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Fremantle v Hawthorn betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL qualifying final at Optus Stadium on Thursday.
The Dockers (1.45) are heavy favourites to defeat the Hawks (2.79) with Australian betting sites, following their dominant home and away season, which saw them drop just four games.
The fourth-placed Hawks lost to the Dockers by 15 points in Perth earlier in the season, although the margin could have been greater, if the WA team was accurate.
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Giving the Hawks some hope is that Justin Longmuir’s team have dropped two of their last three games, albeit dead rubbers, with the minor premiership already stitched up.
The Hawks have been in mixed form themselves with an easy win over West Coast giving them a sighter of Optus Stadium in round 24, while their matches before that were a lucky draw against Collingwood, and a thrashing at the hands of Brisbane.
The Dockers are likely to bring their heavy artillery back into the line-up, after being rested in round 24 against Carlton. This includes Jye Amiss, Heath Chapman, Sam Switkowski and young gun Murphy Reid, with just Brennan Cox (hamstring) expected to miss.
The Hawks are expected to recall Jack Ginnivan after he missed the round 24 clash against West Coast in Perth.
Fremantle v Hawthorn betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the odds and found some value Fremantle v Hawthorn tips:
Jye Amiss 3+ goals
Amiss should be cherry ripe for the Dockers first final after sitting out the final round loss to the Blues. Amiss has taken his game to the next level this year and looms as a key player against the miserly Hawks backline. While picking the Dockers’ key forward to fire each week is hard, Amiss seems to be the man to play close to goal and looms as a key to their chances here. He is paying 3.05 to kick 3+.
Jai Newcombe 25+ possessions
Newcombe is the Hawks barometer in the middle. If he doesn’t play a big game against the Dockers we don’t think they can win on the road. He’s going to be cracking in against Brownlow Medallist Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong and if he can win his share of clearances the Hawks are in this up to their necks. He’s paying 1.90 to reach 25+ possessions or a tempting 3.60 to reach 30+.
Mitch Lewis 3+ goals
You can imagine the Dockers are putting a lot of thinking into curtailing Jack Gunston, but the Hawks have multiple strings to their bow. We like Mitch Lewis coming up against Alex Pearce in this one. Lewis is also around the 6.00 quote to kick 3+, which is too tempting for us.
Fremantle – 14.5 points
The Dockers have primed themselves nicely for this match, with all their guns well rested. We think the 14.5 line will be covered, although it might cause a few nervous moments, with it hard seeing this clash being a blow out. The -14.5 points line is paying 1.90 at NextBet.
Fremantle v Hawthorn prediction
Fremantle is in the box seat to advance through this qualifying final, but the Hawks will not die wondering and have the ability to cause an upset. The Dockers’ midfield looks more settled and has more depth than the Hawks, while their forward line has the the talent to serious trouble Tom Barrass and Josh Battle. The Dockers just need to keep a close eye on Nick Watson and ensure their midfield does not let Will Day off the chain. Our final Fremantle v Hawthorn prediction? Dockers by 15 points.
