Melbourne v Carlton betting tips and prediction
Melbourne’s season of rapid improvement will be put to a serious test in their wildcard clash against Carlton at the MCG on Saturday night.
The injury-hit Demons slid out of the top six with a hard-fought loss to the Bulldogs, which thrust them into a cut-throat final against the red-hot Blues.
The Demons (2.15) are underdogs to stop Josh Fraser’s team’s barnstorming run, which has seen them record 10 wins and a draw in his tenure, and ultimately be installed permanent coach.
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The Demons have been forced into several changes, with key forward Matt Jefferson and defender Jake Lever out with injury, while they have dropped the experienced Christian Salem. Melbourne will also be without emerging forward Jacob van Rooyen who still has a week to serve on his suspension.
Carlton (1.70) has a clean bill of health and an in-form line-up, which includes this year’s AFL Rising Star Jagga Smith and Rookie of the Year Harry Dean, with the pair earning the gongs earlier this week.
The Blues have made one change to the team that upset Fremantle at Marvel Stadium with Nick Haynes replacing Wade Derksen, with the former GWS veteran offering more run than his younger teammate.
The teams clashed once earlier this year as Melbourne ran out 23-point winners with Kysaiah Pickett running rampant with 33 possessions and a goal.
Melbourne v Carlton betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Melbourne v Carlton tips:
Harry McKay 3+ goals
The Blues have opted to keep Lewis Young in the team as backup for Marc Pittonet, who faces the daunting Max Gawn, in the ruck. This means McKay can stay closer to goal against a Demons backline missing several key players including Jake Lever. McKay is paying 3.15 to kick 3+.
Under 176.6 points
Each of the last nine Blues v Demons matches has been below the over/under total. We don’t see this changing too much given it’s a final, where the stakes are at their highest. Take the unders with confidence at 1.90 with Neds.
Kade Chandler 2+ goals
The Blues can struggle to contain the smalls at times and Melbourne will be aware this is an area they can exploit. Chandler kicked two a fortnight ago, backed it up with a goal against the Dogs and is still offering great value for 2+ at 4.70 with betting sites.
Melbourne v Carlton prediction
Carlton looks to be hitting the finals in far stronger form than the Demons, and there would be few clubs they fear at the moment. The Demons have been whacked by several key injuries on the eve of the finals, and have rushed their tough midfielder Jack Viney back, despite having not played this season with back and achilles issues. This just smacks of desperation to us and the Blues are in the box seat for this one. Our final Melbourne v Carlton prediction? Blues by 11 points.
