State of Origin Game 3: Queensland v NSW betting tips
The State of Origin decider between Queensland and NSW in Brisbane on Wednesday night is potentially one for the ages, with the Blues going in with rare underdog status at Suncorp Stadium.
Of course, the Maroons headed into Game 2 in Melbourne as rank outsiders as the Blues attempted to seal a series win, but as per the usual script Queensland blew them off the park.
So now we head to the decider in the showpiece series of rugby league’s best competition, and it’s all on the line as Queensland attempt to extend their overall series advantage to 28-17 in front of what will be a rabid, frothing-at-the-mouth home crowd.
NSW have swung the selection axe but there have been worrying signs about their cohesiveness during the series and unless coach Laurie Daley can conjure an upset win, this will likely be his last match as NSW coach. You can only imagine career coaches would not be queuing up for the role, as most previous incumbents have been buried under an unrealistic pile of expectation.
A perfect Queensland winter night is forecast for this match and all league fans are eagerly awaiting for the kick-off of what promises to be a brutal encounter. The Blues’ only hope seems to be making a fast start and then digging deep to hold off the inevitable Marooon waves.
But whichever colour your blood runs for this contest, don’t be late sitting down to watch as the early hits will be immense.
Queensland now lead the overall match tally 71-61, with two draws, and they hold a 27-17 series edge (two series were drawn but went to Queensland as the holders of the title from the previous series).
NSW v Queensland team news
Queensland: Coach Billy Slater has stuck with the back line that went through their NSW rivals like a dose of Epsom salts in Game 2, and why wouldn’t he? They were outstanding. There is a blow in the forwards with Origin standout Lindsay Collins ruled out after suffering a head knock while playing for the Roosters. But that is largely negated by the return from an ankle injury of another Origin workhorse in Pat Carrigan. The Maroons have added Corey Horsburgh and Jeremiah Nanai to the squad but overall they have a calm, menacing look about them.
NSW: Blues coach Laurie Daley did not have the luxury of sticking with a similar line-up after his team fell apart under pressure in the second half in Melbourne. Blues selectors have made wholesale changes and fans can only cross their fingers and hope they will be able to find some sense of unity as even before the Game 2 debacle the team looked disorganised. Dolphins centre Jack Bostock will make his debut on the wing for the Blues, with Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton also coming back into the side as the new centres pairing. Eels ace Mitchell Moses starts at five-eighth, which is hard to believe after Ethan Strange’s sterling display in No.6 in the opening game. Strange is on the six-man bench. Daley has made a big call recalling Panthers brute Liam Martin in the back row, while Haumole Olakau’atu was rightly also recalled after missing the second game. Hooker Blayke Brailey returns to the interchange after recovering from a broken arm and he replaces Apisai Koroisau, who was not really given much chance to shine in Melbourne. Brian To’o, who was exposed under the high ball, Origin rookie Dylan Lucas and centre Kotoni Staggs were all also dropped. Bulldogs pivot Matt Burton joined the Blues camp late as cover for Strange, who rolled his ankle at training.
How to play Wally Lewis Medal betting
This might seem obvious after the Maroons dished out a shellacking in Game 2, but if the Blues happen to aim up in Brisbane and score a win against the odds, then it’s likely the medal winner will be wearing a Blues jersey.
In that scenario the likely winner would be Nathan Cleary, who must shine if the Blues are to win, though the likes of James Tedesco, Cameron Murray and Hudson Young were right in the mix after the first game won by the Blues and could cause a surprise. Tedesco especially would be a shock after his poor performance in Melbourne, but he was good in the opener and stole the late win for his team.
In all likelihood though, the Maroons will close out another series win and the medal will go to Maroons halfback Sam Walker, who has taken to Origin like a duck to water. The value play under a Queensland win could be his halves partner Cameron Munster, who has been good not outstanding so far but is due to really put his stamp on a game.
Origin player of the series past 10 winners
| Year | Player | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tom Dearden | Queensland | Five-eighth |
| 2024 | Angus Crichton | New South Wales | Second-row |
| 2023 | Reuben Cotter | Queensland | Prop / Lock |
| 2022 | Patrick Carrigan | Queensland | Lock |
| 2021 | Tom Trbojevic | New South Wales | Centre |
| 2020 | Cameron Munster | Queensland | Five-eighth |
| 2019 | James Tedesco | New South Wales | Fullback |
| 2018 | Billy Slater | Queensland | Fullback |
| 2017 | Dane Gagai | Queensland | Winger |
| 2016 | Cameron Smith | Queensland | Hooker |
Read on for our NSW v Queensland tips and winner prediction for State of Origin Game 2
NSW v Queensland match information
- Kick-off: 8.05pm AEDT, Wednesday, July 8
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
- Head to head odds: Queensland $1.55, NSW $2.45
- Line betting: Queensland (-4.5 points) $1.90, NSW (+5.5 points) $1.90
- Match total: 44.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
2026 Wally Lewis Medal betting
$1.80 Sam Walker (QLD)
$4 Nathan Cleary (NSW)
$5.50 Selwyn Cobbo (QLD)
$17 Cameron Munster (QLD)
$23 Harry Grant (QLD)
$29 Hudson Young (NSW)
$34 Kalyn Ponga (QLD)
$51 Cameron Murray (NSW)
$67 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD), Max Plath (QLD)
$81 James Tedesco (NSW)
$101+ Check prices for other players
NSW v Queensland betting tips
Unsurprisingly, the Maroons have won 10 of the past 12 State of Origin series deciders. More surprising is that the Blues have won the past two Origin games at Suncorp Stadium, the stadium previously known as Lang Park and the home of Queensland Origin.
Both teams will have a defensive focus for the opening here, especially the Blues given their horror show in the second half at the MCG. They have attempted to beef up their defences with Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton back in the centres and Jack Bostock on a wing to counter the high-leaping Jojo Fifita.
We expect defence to reign in this high-stakes game so the unders at the 44.5-point setting work for us, while Maroons centre Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored 13 tries in 12 Origin games and looks a good bet to cross once again.
As always, keep on eye on the fitness/availability of the players in the wash-up, as the NRL season continues on Friday night.
NSW by 2 points.
- NSW +4.5 points/ match total under 44.5 points at $3.40 with Australian betting sites.
- Payne Haas man of the match at $15. The big man is primed for the game of his life.
State of Origin 2026 results/schedule
- Game I: Wednesday, May 27: NSW 22 (Young, Strange, Cleary, Tedesco tries; Cleary 3 goals) d Queensland 20 (Toia, Flegler, Tabuai-Fidow tries; Walker 3 goals, pen goal) at Accor Stadium, Sydney
- Game II: Wednesday, June 17: Queensland 44 (Cobbo 3, Loiero, Fifita, Tabuai-Fidow, Collins tries; Walker 7 goals, pen goal) d NSW 24 (Nawaqanitawase 2, Staggs, Barnett tries; Cleary 4 goals) at MCG, Melbourne
- Game III: Wednesday, July 8: Queensland v New South Wales, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane | 8.10pm
NRL round 19, 2026
- Friday, July 10: Wests Tigers v Warriors, Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney | 8pm
- Saturday, July 11: Dolphins v Sharks, Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe | 3pm
Bulldogs v Raiders, Accor Stadium, Sydney | 5.30pm
Roosters v Eels, Allianz Stadium, Sydney | 7.35pm - Sunday, July 12: Rabbitohs v Knights, Accor Stadium, Sydney | 2pm
Sea Eagles v Cowboys, 4 Pines Park, Sydney | 4.05pm
Storm v Titans, AAMI Park, Melbourne | 6.15pm
* Broncos, Dragons, Panthers have the bye
* Broncos, Eels, Rabbitohs have the bye
