Hawthorn v Gold Coast betting tips and winner prediction
Welcome to our Hawthorn v Gold Coast betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 7 clash at the University of Tasmania Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Hawks are a narrow 1.61 favourite to topple the much-improved Suns (2.33), who will be boosted by recruit Jamarra Ugle-Hagan’s first game in over 600 days, after crossing from the Western Bulldogs.
The Hawks-Suns line has been set at 8.5 points, while the over/under points total is at 181.5 with Neds Australia.
The Hawks have won five from six games to start the season, and will be boosted by veteran forward Jack Gunston, after he overcome a corked calf, while Finn Maginness, Harry Morrison, Jack Dalton and Jack Scrimshaw have been called up. Skipper James Sicily and Dylan Moore both copped week-long suspensions in their lucky escape against Port Adelaide, while Will McCabe, Flynn Perez and Sam Butler have been omitted.
The Suns have won four from six matches but have been up and down with their form, which is not that surprising given key players, including Christian Petracca, Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell have all missed matches.
The Suns have recalled Anderson after his appendix issue for the Hawks’ clash, while they dodged a bullet with John Noble getting off his rough conduct charge, with the ex-Pie set to take on the Hawks. Talented pair Joel Jeffrey and Charlie Ballard were the unlucky two to make way for Ugle-Hagan and Anderson.
Hawthorn v Gold Coast betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has cast his eye over the odds and found some value Hawthorn v Gold Coast tips:
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 3+ goals
Ugle-Hagan is undeniably talented and it’s going to hurt dogs fans seeing him on the end of the Suns’ star studded midfield. This guy, if he can keep his head screwed on, could be the difference between a finals appearance and a flag. While Australian betting sites were yet to include Ugle-Hagan in their markets, we expect him to be at decent odds to kick 3+ goals and is a nice rough option.
Why we’re avoiding Nick Watson this week
Watson is a star, is fresh off five goals, and the Gold Coast are not going to let him torch them, like the Power did last week. Expect Touk Miller to mind him when he’s up the ground, while he will be an obvious target for the Suns backline when he’s forward. No doubt he’ll have his moment, but surely it won’t be another career day for the Wizard.
Jai Newcombe 25+ possessions
The Hawks midfield is what will ultimately cost them a flag this year, and you can see why they were so desperate for Essendon skipper Zach Merrett. Looking at the two line-ups, the Suns, especially if Anderson plays have a far better onball brigade. If Newcombe doesn’t play well, the Hawks might get rolled in Tassie.
Over/Under tip
We’ll be going with the unders here. This game is in Tassie, which always has the potential for rain, and the mark of 181.5 is a touch too high, for two quality teams, with powerful backlines.
Hawthorn v Gold Coast prediction
The Hawks are deserved favourite and have kept defying our predictions this year, but we really think the underdog can and will win this game, given the Hawks key outs and the strength of the Suns line-up, which we’re willing to give another chance after a patchy month. Our final Hawthorn v Gold Coast prediction? Suns by four points.
