Fremantle v Hawthorn betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Fremantle v Hawthorn betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 9 clash at Optus Stadium on Thursday night.
The Dockers are 1.77 favourites to defeat the Hawks (2.05) with this favouritism coming on the back of their home-ground advantage.
The Dockers-Hawks line has been set at a paltry 3.5 points, while the over/under total points market is currently at 184.5.
MORE: AFL round 9 fixtures and preview
Fremantle will welcome back Judd McVee after he missed their hard-fought victory over the Western Bulldogs in Melbourne with illness. The Dockers will also consider recalling Brandon Walker after his concussion layoff, while Sean Darcy and Jaeger O’Meara still have some time on the sidelines with their respective injuries.
Hawks coach Sam Mitchell described the clash against the Dockers as “defining” and said James Sicily will play, despite suffering an ankle injury in their draw against Collingwood.
He also kept his cards close to his chest when it comes to Fremantle’s superstar Luke Jackson, backing in his dangerous pair Lloyd Meek and Ned Reeves.
“I guess having the two rucks gives us an on-paper advantage against teams with something like him,” he said.
“But having said that he’s a unique type of player and he will test us at stages.”
Mitchell said both Mabior Chol and WIll Day are both tracking well in their returns for injury, with supporters particularly excite for the return of the latter, who has barely played any football in two years.
The Hawks will have to overcome their recent record against Fremantle, having dropped seven of their last eight contests, including a loss in round 18 last year at Thursday night’s venue.
Fremantle v Hawthorn tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Fremantle v Hawthorn betting tips:
How to profit on Luke Jackson
We haven’t quite cracked the code on profiting off the dominant Luke Jackson, despite throwing him in for the odd goal, but his reputation has continued to balloon. We’re going to try him for 100+ fantasy points this week. It’s a market we don’t really dabble in generally, but he’s offering decent value at 1.35. What makes him dangerous in this market is if he’s not dominating the centre square, he can still score points up forward.
Shai Bolton 25+ possessions
Fremantle’s gun has blossomed playing mainly through the midfield this year, with his possession count skyrocketing. We suspect he’d be ahead of Caleb Serong in the Brownlow Medal right now, and with his price at 67.00 we’ve had something small on him to win it this week. Bolton is paying 1.75 yo reach 25+ this week, with the ex-Tiger having passed 30 the previous two weeks, we’re confident. The big query is the Hawks, who might clamp down on the elusive small.
Nick Watson 3+ goals
He’s short, smug and hard to take your eyes off. Watson is the best crumber in the game at the moment, can go through the midfield, and is absolutely electric in big moments. He’s been a cashcow all year the Hawks youngster and we’ll roll with him again here. He’s at 2.10 to score 3+ goals with Neds, which is narrow, but he’s going to need to play well for the Hawks to win. Connor Macdonald was outstanding against the Pies last week with 28 possessions and three goals and is worth including for a goal again here, given his running power and the big ground.
Fremantle v Hawthorn prediction
We are not as bullish on either of these teams as other pundits, but the Dockers have gone up in our estimations in recent weeks, with the Dogs game one they would have dropped in the past. The Hawks clearly have the ability to win this game, but are coming off a bruising match against the Magpies, and face the WA team on their home deck – which is always challenging. We don’t expect a blowout but the Dockers should win. Our final Fremantle v Hawthorn prediction? Fremantle by 12 points.
