Carlton v Geelong betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Carlton v Geelong betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 12 clash at the MCG on Friday night.
A fortnight ago the Blues were on the canvas having just sacked coach Michael Voss, but now with a new coach they are gunning for a third victory in as many matches.
The Blues (3.66) face a tall order against the Cats (1.29) but have proven to be a much more formidable opponent under ex-Collingwood ruckman Josh Fraser.
The Blues are taking more risks, using the corridor and taking uncontested marks at will, but beating Geelong will be much harder than the Western Bulldogs or Port Adelaide.
They will also have to do it without the talented Matt Carroll after he ruptured his ACL against the Power, but they will be boosted by star defender Jacob Weitering.
The Cats have swept all before them in the last month, thrashing North Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane and Sydney in successive matches.
This outstanding form has seen their premiership odds sliced in from as long as 13.00, into equal 5.00 favourite with Fremantle.
The Cats are likely to be boosted by Tanner Bruhn after being rested against the Swans, while Hawks recruit James Worpel and Jack Bowes both performed strongly in the VFL.
Cats coach Chris Scott will be wary of a let down and their recent poor record against the Blues, which has seen them drop matches during the season, in successive years.
Carlton v Geelong betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Carlton v Geelong tips:
Over 178.5 total match points
The weather looks fine for Friday night, the Cats certainly dont’ have trouble scoring and the Blues have got a new found attacking flare under Fraser. We think the 178.5 total points mark is in serious danger in this one, with it paying 1.88 with Neds.
Oliver Henry 3+ goals
The former Magpie has been a source of funds for us in the last month and we’ll stick by him for 3+ here. The Blues are strong in the key defensive posts (as long as Weitering returns) and Henry could be the man who slips under the guard, and he’s in career-best form. He’s paying 3.20 to kick 3+ goals. Cats star Jeremy Cameron booted four goals against the Blues last time, and is in stellar form, but his odds are just too short for our tastes.
Max Holmes 14+ handballs
Holmes has surpassed 14 handballs in his last three games, and he’s paying 2.75 to do it again here. The concern is if he’s moved to the outside to accommodate Bruhn. This market is available at Ladbrokes Australia.
Carlton v Geelong prediction
Carlton will hit this game hard and if the Cats are slightly off it could be a lot closer than predicted. We’re excited about the midfield battles, which will pit the Cats gun pair Max Holmes and Bailey Smith against Blues stars Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and the emerging Jagga Smith. But ultimately we think the Cats will have too much firepower for the Blues up front. The smart money is to back the Cats with a margin of 1-39 points at 2.30. Our final Blues v Cats prediction? Geelong by 18 points.
