Adelaide v Geelong betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Adelaide v Geelong betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 13 clash at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night.
The Crows have been installed a 2.34 outsider against the Cats (1.60) with it shaping as the match of the round, pitting eighth against fourth.
The Crows v Cats 1.90 line has been set at 9.5 points, while the over/under total points mark is at 165.5 with Australian betting sites.
The Crows would be frustrated after losing a close one to Hawthorn a fortnight ago, in a match they failed to capitalise on their chances.
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But coming off the bye, Adelaide has benefited from an extra week of recovery, allowing several sore players — including Izak Rankine — additional time to overcome lingering niggles although they ultimately left him out.
The Crows have confirmed mid-season draft pick Hugo Hall-Kahan will make his debut against the Cats, while veteran Taylor Walker has also been recalled after a strong SANFL performance in his return from injury.
The Crows have lost towering forward Riley Thilthorpe, who will serve a one week suspension, with his absence set to further weaken the Crows attack in Rankine’s absence.
Geelong will also be hurting after losing to much-improved Carlton in a cracking contest, which saw them go down by four points on Friday night.
The Cats have lost young defender Lawson Humphries (ankle), Mitch Edwards and Brad Close (both dropped).
They will be boosted by the return of Jack Martin after was rested against the Blues, while Jack Bowes, who will play game 150, and Oliver Wiltshire have been called up after strong VFL form.
Adelaide v Geelong betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Adelaide v Geelong tips:
Darcy Fogarty 3+ goals
Fogarty had an injury-interrupted start to 2026 but has began to look more like the player he can be in the Crows last few matches. He kicked 1.2 against Hawthorn and probably should have had more. The Cats backline has proven to be vulnerable in recent weeks, and Fogarty is the man to take advantage. He’s paying 3.15 to kick 3+ goals. I also really like Josh Rachele, who has blown out to 6.00 to kick 3+. If the weather is bad on Thursday, look to Rachele for goals.
Shaun Mannagh 2+ goals
Mannagh might have some defensive flaws, but he is an offensive weapon for the Cats; and is offering nice value at 2.90 to kick 2+ goals. The wet weather might suit a player like Mannagh on Thursday night.
Possessions betting tips
Brownlow Medal fancy Bailey Smith is the obvious one to top the possessions in the match, with the prolific Cat notching up 35 in their loss to the Blues. Holmes and Tanner Bruhn are also candidates to reach 25+.
On the Crows side, Jordan Dawson was great last start with 28 and looms as key to their engine room. We’ll wait and see on Rankine, given his calf complaint, while the likes of Ben Keays will be given midfield minutes if Rankine is out. Rory Laird is another that tends to play well in tough conditions.
Adelade v Geelong prediction
We’re not convinced the Cats should be favourite for this contest, hence we’re going to take the better odds on offer for a Crows victory at home. We will temper this by saying keep an eye on selection, because Rankine is a key to this team, and might miss given they will take no chances with him. If the Crows can curb Jeremy Cameron and keep a lid on the support cast, which has included both Henrys and Shannon Neale in recent weeks, we think they will emerge victorious in a close one. Use the tribet market (1-24 points) if you’re putting a winner in your multis, with it hard seeing either team winning by more than 24 points. Our final Crows v Cats prediction? Crows by one point.
