Geelong v Brisbane betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Geelong v Brisbane betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round-17 clash at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night.
The Cats (1.45) are short-priced favourites to defeat the Lions (2.76) with Australian betting sites, although the reigning premiers have lifted in the past three weeks.
Geelong’s form in contrast is wavering, with their one win in their past four matches coming against Gold Coast a fortnight ago, with their most recent a nine-point loss to Fremantle in the west.
The Cats will be boosted by the inclusion of star midfielder Bailey Smith after he missed the Dockers clash with illness, while Tom Stewart (concussion) and Brad Close (ankle) loom as likely inclusions.
The Lions will again be without Hugh McCluggage (calf) and Dayne Zorko (quad) but the pair are nearing their returns, with an unchagned line-up for the first time this year a real possibility for Chris Fagan’s team.
Brisbane will take heart from defeating the Cats in Geelong last season for the first time in 22 years, with Kardinia Park traditionally a very tough place for interstate teams to win.
Geelong v Brisbane betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Geelong v Brisbane tips:
Bailey Smith & Will Ashcroft 30+ possessions
Smith will have had nearly three weeks rest since he last played when the Lions game begins, and you would expect his running power to be top-notch. Smith is only paying 1.35 to reach 30+ which is a touch short, but multi it up with the in-form Ashcroft, who is playing more midfield minutes with McCluggage in the sheds, and it’s worth your time. Ashcroft is paying 2.20 to reach 30+.
Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals
Cameron is paying 1.98 to kick 3+ goals with NextBet and after a fortnight off to get his arm right, we expect him to have a big game.
Kai Lohman 3+ goals
The Lions forward has not been as brilliant this year, but did kick two goals last time out, and presented well. We like him for 3+ because his odds have ballooned out to 8.50, which is worth a swing in a match that is likely to favour the smaller forwards.
Geelong v Brisbane prediction
This is one of the more interesting matches in round-17 AFL action. Both teams are top four contenders, but will need to finish the home and away season strongly to book their spot. The Cats’ form has wavered in the last month, but the bye should help, while the Lions look like they are beginning to roll, and have power forward Oscar Allen set to return in the coming weeks. We can’t see this match being a blowout, or high-scoring, so we recommend taking a tri-bet into the under total match points. Our final Geelong v Brisbane prediction? Lions to win a close one, just because their odds are better, in a match we mark about even money.
