Carlton v Hawthorn betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Carlton v Hawthorn betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 18 clash at the MCG on Saturday night.
The Hawks (1.69) are favourites to extend their three match winning streak over the Blues (2.17), but they are a different proposition under former Magpie Josh Fraser, having rattled off six successive wins.
The Blues v Hawks line has been set at a paltry 5.5 points with Aussie betting sites, while the over/under total points mark is a very low 147.5 points, with plenty of rain forecast for Melbourne on Saturday.
The Hawks will enter the clash without their best player Nick Watson, key forward Jack Gunston, Josh Weddle, Conor Nash and Josh Battle. They have regained Jarman Impey and Karl Amon, while they will also blood young midfielder Oliver Greeves after a string of good VFL form.
The Blues have made two changes to the team that defeated Richmond by two points, with Rising Star fancy Harry Dean and ruckman Flynn Riley, who will play his first game, into the team. They have lost no.1 ruckman Marc Pittonet to a minor hamstring strain, which leaves mid-season draft pick Riley to shoulder the ruck load. Lewis Young also goes out of the line-up.
Carlton v Hawthorn betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Carlton v Hawthorn tips:
Patrick Cripps 25+ possessions
The Blues skipper has been a different player under Fraser, and the conditions are set to suit him in this clash, and he’s likely to spend plenty of time crashing in against Hawks star Jai Newcombe. We think both of these guys will gather 25+ at 1.40 and 1.53 respectively. Newcombe for 10 clearances is paying 1.88 with NextBet (NextBet review), and is one we will consider.
Dylan Moore 2+ goals
The Hawks are going to need one of their smalls to kick goals if they are to account for the Blues, and with Watson out, we expect Moore will spend plenty of time within range. He’s also great value at 2.85 to kick 2+.
Will Day 25+ possessions
Day reached 25 a fortnight ago and was solid with 20 last week. We don’t think the Blues will tag, and they might end up regretting it if Day gets off the hook. He’s a juicy 2.70 to reach 25+.
Carlton v Hawthorn prediction
The Hawks have got key injuries at the moment and the Blues could not be facing them at a better time. Despite this, the Hawks maintain favouritism and still have enough quality to account for the Blues, with Impey and Amon’s inclusions massive. While a seventh successive win for the Blues and setting up the ultimate blockbuster against Collingwood next week is the sexy option, we think their run might come to an end against a Hawks team needing a win. Our final Carlton v Hawthorn prediction? Hawks by 11 points.
