Melbourne v Geelong betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Melbourne v Geelong betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 20 clash at the MCG on Friday night.
The Demons (1.84) are remarkably favourites to defeat the Cats (2.00) after their surprising season despite the off-season departures of Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca.
Steven King’s team has now won three successive matches, including a victory over Hawthorn, to put themselves into favouritism against another flag fancy.
Making the Demons job easier is a string of injuries to key Cats, including star forward Jeremy Cameron and gun midfielder Max Holmes. The Cats are also sweating on the fitness of important midfielders Tanner Bruhn and Shaun Mannagh, with both listed as a Test.
The Cats are likely to recall Mark Blicavs, Jake Kolodjashnij and Jack Martin after they were rested for the win over St Kilda, which came in similar circumstances as this clash, with an emerging team expected to give them a major scare.
The Demons , who defeated North Melbourne last Saturday, will be without Daniel Turner (ribs) but Harrison Petty is expected to replace him, while Christian Salem played well in the VFL in his return from injury and looms as a likely inclusion, with Changkuoth Jiath expected to miss.
Melbourne v Geelong tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Melbourne v Geelong betting tips:
Shannon Neale 3+ goals
We’re keeping the faith here after Cats forward failed to fire last week against the Saints. His odds of 3+ have eased further out to 2.50, which is good enough for this tipster.
Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals
The Demons forward went goalless against North Melbourne, but did kick five the week before. He’s the type of smart forward that can trouble the Cats, who can zone off and leave space for shorter options. Fritsch is paying 2.05 with Aussie betting sites to kick 2+.
James Worpel 25+ possessions
The Cats have lost arguably their best player Max Holmes to injury, and it’s now time for Hawks recruit James Worpel to step up. He gathered 24 against the Saints last week, largely after Holmes went down, and we’ll back him in to get to 25 at the great price of 2.95. This is probably our best bet in this clash.
Melbourne v Geelong prediction
We are actually shocked the Demons are favourites for this clash and we’ll be even more shocked if they can get the job done. We’re super confident that the Cats will put a dent in the Dees top four hopes with a commanding victory. The Demons biggest star is Kysaiah Pickett but we think Oisin Mullin is the perfect match-up and will blanket him well. Look for Kozzie to go forward, where he could be good value for 3+. This match though, is crucial for both clubs, and we think the experience of the Cats will get the job done. Our final Melbourne v Geelong prediction? Cats by 21 points.
