Carlton v Gold Coast betting tips and winner prediction
Welcome to our Carlton v Gold Coast betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 20 clash at Marvel Stadium on Saturday.
The Blues (1.65) are favourites with Australian betting sites to defeat Gold Coast (2.25) despite dropping their last two games to Hawthorn and Collingwood, under the guidance of interim coach Josh Fraser.
The flailing Suns have dropped eight successive games to go from a premiership contender to a severe disappointment, with their pain set to be extended with the defection of gun forward Ben King to the Hawks.
Despite this the Suns are only four points behind the Blues on the ladder and just two wins outside the wildcard positions, although this looks a long way off for Damien Hardwick’s team.
The Suns have swung just one change with defender Charlie Ballard replacing Oscar Adams, leaving former captain Jarrod Witts in the twos, behind Ned Moyle.
The Blues have received a major boost with their no.1 ruckman Marc Pittonet and Lewis Young recalled, but they have lost key forward Harry McKay and dropped young ruckman Liam Reidy.
Carlton will be hoping Fraser can recapture the magic that saw him secure six consecutive wins when he took over from sacked coach Michael Voss, with their loss to the Magpies last week highlighted by their inability to score regularly.
The Blues v Suns line has been set at a narrow 6.5 points, while the over/under total points mark is sitting around 171.5, which looks fair on the fast deck at Marvel.
Carlton v Gold Coast betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Carlton v Gold Coast tips:
Patrick Cripps 2+ goals
The Blues will need someone to kick goals in the absence of McKay, and Brodie’ Kemp’s goal-kicking has us looking elsewhere. We can see the Blues skipper spending plenty of time forward, and at 2.35 to kick 2+ we think it’s worth a flutter. Mitch McGovern is another Blue enjoying a strong season, and will need goals if they are to win.
Leonardo Lombardo 2+ goals
This guy is a jet and has began to hit the scoreboard regularly. You won’t get 3.60 odds on 2+ for him for long.
Over 171.5 points
Both of these clubs feature leaky backlines at the moment, with the absence of Blues star Jacob Weitering really hurting them, despite the outstanding efforts of youngster Harry Dean. We just can’t see either team shutting this down into a dour affair and we think plenty of goals will flow (although our query is on who will kick them for the Blues).
Talor Byrne 3+ goals
Byrne has had so many looks in the last few weeks but has not quite converted them. This is a very speculative tip, but he’s paying 16.00 to kick 3+. If you find the week it clicks for this talented forward you will be in for a windfall. While 2+ at 7.00 is more sensible, the 3+ odds might be worth something small.
Carlton v Gold Coast prediction
While the Blues found something extra in the first period of Fraser’s tenure, they have struggled against the better teams in the last fortnight. It’s also very hard to tip the Suns given their run of losses and disappointing form of some of their stars. We also wonder about their mental state, given King has reportedly told teammates of his intention to join the Hawks on less money. Theoretically the Suns have more firepower and given they are at 2.25 to win, in a match we mark about even money, we will tip them (but with little confidence). Our final Carlton v Gold Coast prediction? Suns by two points.
